Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Quantrill, Cal

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace3.11
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.84 3.41 4.04 4.68 5.25
FIP
3.97 4.26 4.59 4.92 5.22
K%
13.9% 15.2% 16.7% 18.3% 19.6%
BB%
5.7% 6.4% 7.3% 8.2% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
79
ERA3.11
73
BB%6.6%
80 +19 vs proj
K%15.3%
7
xwOBA allowed0.330
33
Barrel allowed9.5%
26
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
81
Whiff%16.3%
5
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+100
17
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Fastball Stuff+100
30
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Quantrill, Cal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-06: 0.3392026-07-07: 0.3392026-07-08: 0.3392026-07-09: 0.3392026-07-10: 0.3392026-07-11: 0.3392026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3302026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.330 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Quantrill, Cal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.2%Sinker: 28.8%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Split-Finger: 18.2%Curveball: 4.6% FC29% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 29%SI 29%FF 19%FS 18%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.3 mphFC88 mphSinker: 29% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.7 mphFS86 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 39.2% 116 103 limited sample
FC 36.8% 109 101 limited sample
FB 19.9% 59 100 limited sample
CB 4.1% 12 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 22%, Sinker 22%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.88
K% Δ-0.021
Sample47.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.5----
Batters Faced630----
K%17.4%13.0% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.9%16.1% to 23.5%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.660.84 to 2.35+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3300.291 to 0.361+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.993.36 to 6.75+/- 1.70
FIP5.023.70 to 5.46+/- 0.88
WHIP1.3911.155 to 1.686+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1859 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%15.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

1967 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%14.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.8%