Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Quantrill, Cal

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace2.79
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight27%
ERA
2.94 3.56 4.26 4.95 5.57
FIP
3.70 4.03 4.39 4.75 5.07
K%
14.3% 16.0% 17.9% 19.8% 21.5%
BB%
6.1% 7.1% 8.1% 9.2% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
47
Barrel allowed10.8%
17 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
46
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
54
K%17.8%
18
Whiff%18.5%
16
xwOBA allowed0.337
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Quantrill, Cal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3452026-05-24: 0.3452026-05-25: 0.3452026-05-26: 0.3452026-05-28: 0.3452026-05-29: 0.3482026-05-30: 0.3372026-05-31: 0.3372026-06-01: 0.337 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Quantrill, Cal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.5%Cutter: 28.3%Split-Finger: 18.5%4-Seam Fastball: 17.7%Curveball: 4.1% MIX SI 32%FC 28%FS 18%FF 18%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.5SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FCFS: HB -0.5, IVB 2.7FSFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFCU: HB 0.0, IVB 4.4CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 40.2% 106 103 limited sample
FC 35.2% 93 102 limited sample
FB 20.5% 54 100 limited sample
CB 4.2% 11 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 22%, Sinker 22%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.20
K% Δ+0.004
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.0----
Batters Faced628----
K%17.4%13.0% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.9%16.1% to 23.5%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.660.84 to 2.35+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3300.291 to 0.361+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.993.36 to 6.75+/- 1.70
FIP5.023.70 to 5.46+/- 0.88
WHIP1.3911.155 to 1.686+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1859 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%15.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

1967 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%14.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.8%