Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Quantrill, Cal

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
70
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.80
ERA current pace3.01
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.45 3.04 3.69 4.34 4.92
FIP
3.55 3.86 4.21 4.55 4.86
K%
16.2% 17.3% 18.5% 19.7% 20.8%
BB%
5.4% 6.0% 6.7% 7.4% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
88
ERA3.01
81
BB%6.1%
89 +27 vs proj
K%18.9%
28
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
49 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
39
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
72
Whiff%17.0%
8
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Cutter Stuff+102
46
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Quantrill, Cal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3052026-08-28: 0.3052026-08-29: 0.3052026-08-30: 0.3092026-08-31: 0.3092026-09-01: 0.3092026-09-02: 0.3092026-09-03: 0.3092026-09-04: 0.3012026-09-05: 0.301 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Quantrill, Cal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.4%4-Seam Fastball: 23.7%Split-Finger: 22.2%Cutter: 21.0%Curveball: 4.3%Slider: 3.5% SI25% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 25%FF 24%FS 22%FC 21%CU 4%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.8 mphFS85 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphSlider: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.7% 191 104 limited sample
FB 28.8% 150 102 limited sample
FC 26.7% 139 102 limited sample
CB 4.2% 22 100 limited sample
SL 3.6% 19 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 22%, Sinker 22%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.98
K% Δ+0.015
Sample97.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.5----
Batters Faced630----
K%17.4%13.0% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.9%16.1% to 23.5%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.660.84 to 2.35+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3300.292 to 0.361+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.993.36 to 6.75+/- 1.70
FIP5.023.70 to 5.46+/- 0.88
WHIP1.3911.155 to 1.686+/- 0.266
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1859 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%15.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

1967 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%14.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.8%