Ferguson, Tyler
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.88 |
| ERA current pace | 27.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.63 |
| Observed weight | 3% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 38.5% | 10 | 123 | limited sample |
| SL | 30.8% | 8 | 109 | limited sample |
| SI | 15.4% | 4 | 100 | limited sample |
| CH | 11.5% | 3 | 95 | limited sample |
| FC | 3.8% | 1 | 72 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 160 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.8% | 17.7% to 31.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 11.0% | 7.6% to 16.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 23.4% | 19.0% to 29.9% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.08 | 0.04 to 1.69 | +/- 0.83 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.223 to 0.348 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 3.9% to 11.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 3.93 | 1.98 to 6.68 | +/- 2.35 |
| FIP | 4.00 | 2.29 to 5.14 | +/- 1.43 |
| WHIP | 1.329 | 0.980 to 1.681 | +/- 0.350 |
193 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.305 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 14.7% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |
326 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 24.5% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |