Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Rucker, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
13.3% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace6.30
ERA rolling p504.68
Observed weight38%
ERA
3.19 3.90 4.68 5.46 6.17
FIP
2.56 3.16 3.82 4.48 5.08
K%
18.7% 20.5% 22.6% 24.7% 26.6%
BB%
6.0% 7.3% 8.7% 10.1% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
43
ERA6.30
8
BB%8.8%
50
K%26.5%
80 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
65
Barrel allowed7.5%
50
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
64
Whiff%24.2%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Curveball Stuff+104
73
Cutter Stuff+101
40
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+110
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rucker, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-08-20: 0.2892026-08-21: 0.2892026-08-22: 0.2892026-08-23: 0.2892026-08-24: 0.2892026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3052026-08-28: 0.3052026-08-29: 0.3052026-08-30: 0.3022026-08-31: 0.302 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rucker, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rucker, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.0%Curveball: 31.8%Cutter: 20.6%Sinker: 11.2%Slider: 2.7%Changeup: 0.7% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%CU 32%FC 21%SI 11%SL 3%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rucker, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 32% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mphCutter: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSinker: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphSlider: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 91.6 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.2% 69 104 limited sample
FB 31.7% 66 104 limited sample
FC 17.3% 36 101 limited sample
SI 15.9% 33 110 limited sample
SL 1.4% 3 103 limited sample
CH 0.5% 1 120 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.65
K% Δ+0.044
Sample33.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced175----
K%22.1%13.3% to 24.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%14.9% to 25.4%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.520.41 to 2.39+/- 0.99
xwOBA Against0.2980.221 to 0.342+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.2% to 11.3%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.712.29 to 6.37+/- 2.04
FIP4.222.67 to 6.12+/- 1.73
WHIP1.2860.912 to 1.503+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

259 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%13.6%
BB%8.4%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

328 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%14.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.3%