Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Changeup 15%.
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026
Waguespack, Jacob
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team DET
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.93 |
| ERA current pace | 2.48 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.41 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
ERA
1.96
2.65
3.41
4.17
4.86
FIP
3.17
3.79
4.48
5.17
5.79
K%
13.7%
15.8%
18.2%
20.5%
22.7%
BB%
5.9%
7.3%
8.8%
10.4%
11.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.90
97
ERA2.48
90
BB%9.1%
48
K%15.2%
7
-38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.280
84
Barrel allowed6.1%
71
+18 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed32.7%
88
Whiff%22.4%
47
-34 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+102
51
Cutter Stuff+100
32
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
44%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 43.0% | 98 | 102 | limited sample |
| FC | 32.0% | 73 | 100 | limited sample |
| CH | 18.4% | 42 | 98 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.6% | 15 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.20 |
| K% Δ | -0.062 |
| Sample | 33.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 35.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 155 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.4% | 14.6% to 27.8% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 5.2% to 13.7% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 26.9% | 20.2% to 35.3% | +/- 7.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 0.41 to 1.89 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.287 | 0.185 to 0.356 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 1.6% to 11.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| ERA | 3.77 | 2.05 to 5.98 | +/- 1.97 |
| FIP | 3.56 | 2.16 to 5.72 | +/- 1.78 |
| WHIP | 1.271 | 0.885 to 1.637 | +/- 0.376 |
vs LHH
229 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.208 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHH
280 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.198 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |