Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, Cutter 28%, Sweeper 16%.
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026
Blackburn, Paul
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYY
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.46 |
| ERA current pace | 3.22 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.06 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
2.76
3.38
4.06
4.74
5.36
FIP
3.34
3.61
3.92
4.22
4.50
K%
16.2%
17.9%
19.9%
21.8%
23.6%
BB%
6.3%
7.3%
8.4%
9.5%
10.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.6%
26
-43 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
71
+19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
45
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
58
K%15.9%
12
-15 vs proj
Whiff%15.1%
4
-37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
46
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+98
24
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
8Pitches
2026Season
36%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 34.7% | 126 | 101 | limited sample |
| SI | 33.1% | 120 | 94 | limited sample |
| CB | 12.1% | 44 | 96 | limited sample |
| CH | 11.6% | 42 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 7.2% | 26 | 103 | limited sample |
| FB | 1.4% | 5 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.34 |
| K% Δ | -0.034 |
| Sample | 25.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 67.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 296 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.3% | 16.5% to 26.6% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 5.0% to 9.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 21.9% | 17.6% to 26.2% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.44 | 0.88 to 2.14 | +/- 0.63 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.321 | 0.279 to 0.345 | +/- 0.033 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 5.2% to 10.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.55 | 3.30 to 6.76 | +/- 1.73 |
| FIP | 4.09 | 3.21 to 4.76 | +/- 0.77 |
| WHIP | 1.350 | 1.123 to 1.638 | +/- 0.257 |
vs LHH
1033 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.303 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHH
1109 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.308 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |