Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Blackburn, Paul

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-18
ERA preseason4.46
ERA current pace1.70
ERA rolling p502.86
Observed weight58%
ERA
1.62 2.21 2.86 3.51 4.10
FIP
3.37 3.63 3.92 4.21 4.47
K%
18.4% 19.7% 21.1% 22.5% 23.8%
BB%
7.3% 8.0% 8.9% 9.7% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA1.70
98
BB%10.0%
38 -34 vs proj
K%20.6%
38
xwOBA allowed0.298
67 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
76
Whiff%20.4%
29
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-18
Mithrandir Stuff+100
28
Sinker Stuff+99
25
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Curveball Stuff+99
10
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+85
1
Slider Stuff+104
66
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blackburn, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-09-04: 0.2882026-09-05: 0.2922026-09-06: 0.2922026-09-07: 0.2922026-09-08: 0.2922026-09-09: 0.2922026-09-10: 0.2942026-09-11: 0.2942026-09-12: 0.2982026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.298 2026-09-04 2026-09-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blackburn, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.9%Changeup: 20.9%Cutter: 20.0%Curveball: 14.2%Sweeper: 7.2%4-Seam Fastball: 2.8% SI34% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 34%CH 21%FC 20%CU 14%ST 7%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 34% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.5 mphCH87 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.8 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.7 mphST84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphSlider: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.3% 236 99 qualified
FC 26.1% 185 101 limited sample
CH 18.2% 129 102 limited sample
CB 13.3% 94 99 limited sample
SL 7.2% 51 104 limited sample
FB 2.0% 14 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, Cutter 28%, Sweeper 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.85
K% Δ+0.012
Sample82.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.9----
Batters Faced297----
K%19.4%16.5% to 26.6%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.4%5.0% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%21.9%17.6% to 26.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.440.88 to 2.14+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3210.279 to 0.345+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed7.5%5.2% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.553.30 to 6.76+/- 1.73
FIP4.093.21 to 4.76+/- 0.77
WHIP1.3491.124 to 1.638+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1033 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%18.9%
BB%6.9%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1109 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%19.2%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.6%