Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Blackburn, Paul

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
16.5% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal7 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.46
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.21 2.79 3.43 4.08 4.66
FIP
3.30 3.55 3.84 4.13 4.39
K%
17.4% 18.9% 20.6% 22.3% 23.8%
BB%
5.9% 6.7% 7.6% 8.5% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
79
ERA2.22
93
BB%7.9%
62
K%19.3%
29
xwOBA allowed0.291
71 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
53
Fastball velo94.2
46
Hard-hit allowed32.2%
90
Whiff%18.9%
17 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+107
80
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Cutter Stuff+101
45
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blackburn, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-06: 0.2942026-07-07: 0.2952026-07-08: 0.2952026-07-09: 0.2922026-07-10: 0.2922026-07-11: 0.2932026-07-12: 0.2932026-07-13: 0.2942026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2912026-07-17: 0.291 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blackburn, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 32.9%Cutter: 25.4%Changeup: 16.9%Curveball: 13.5%Sweeper: 6.1%4-Seam Fastball: 3.5% SI33% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 33%FC 25%CH 17%CU 14%ST 6%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blackburn, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 33% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.1 mphSI94 mphCutter: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 80.9 mphCU81 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.3 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlider: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.6 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.5 mphPO90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 33.5% 141 101 limited sample
SI 30.4% 128 94 limited sample
CH 14.0% 59 107 limited sample
CB 13.1% 55 98 limited sample
SL 6.7% 28 105 limited sample
FB 2.4% 10 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, Cutter 28%, Sweeper 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.34
K% Δ+0.000
Sample50.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.3----
Batters Faced295----
K%19.3%16.5% to 26.6%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.4%5.0% to 9.9%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%21.9%17.6% to 26.2%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.440.88 to 2.14+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3210.279 to 0.345+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed7.5%5.2% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.563.30 to 6.76+/- 1.73
FIP4.093.21 to 4.76+/- 0.77
WHIP1.3501.123 to 1.638+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1033 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%18.9%
BB%6.9%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1109 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%19.2%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.6%