Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Alvarado, José

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
19.7% to 34.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace5.79
ERA rolling p504.34
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.62 3.44 4.34 5.25 6.06
FIP
2.68 3.16 3.69 4.21 4.69
K%
20.3% 22.9% 25.8% 28.6% 31.2%
BB%
5.8% 7.2% 8.8% 10.3% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.2%
60 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.5%
99 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo98.1
95
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
75
K%25.5%
72
Whiff%29.0%
87 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3032026-05-24: 0.3032026-05-25: 0.3032026-05-26: 0.3032026-05-28: 0.2962026-05-29: 0.2962026-05-30: 0.2962026-05-31: 0.2962026-06-01: 0.295 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 63.7%Cutter: 33.2%Curveball: 1.6%4-Seam Fastball: 1.6% MIX SI 64%FC 33%CU 2%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.2, IVB 1.4SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.3FCCU: HB 0.1, IVB 3.3CUFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.2FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 63.7% 239 104 qualified
FC 32.5% 122 89 limited sample
CB 1.9% 7 105 limited sample
FB 1.9% 7 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Cutter 29%, Curveball 5%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.36
K% Δ+0.002
Sample21.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.7----
Batters Faced155----
K%25.3%19.7% to 34.8%+/- 7.6%
BB%9.5%5.8% to 13.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.6%20.0% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.200.52 to 2.02+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3090.240 to 0.366+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.431.79 to 6.36+/- 2.28
FIP3.502.57 to 5.23+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2750.972 to 1.614+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%25.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1199 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%24.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel8.3%