Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 6 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Alvarado, José

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
19.7% to 34.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-06
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace5.62
ERA rolling p504.66
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.05 3.82 4.66 5.51 6.28
FIP
2.83 3.27 3.77 4.27 4.71
K%
21.7% 23.7% 25.9% 28.0% 30.0%
BB%
7.1% 8.2% 9.4% 10.6% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
16
ERA5.62
16
BB%9.7%
42
K%25.8%
75
xwOBA allowed0.304
61
Barrel allowed4.7%
89 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
94
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
91
Whiff%25.7%
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-06
Mithrandir Stuff+101
35
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+105
84
Cutter Stuff+88
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3042026-08-31: 0.3072026-09-01: 0.3062026-09-02: 0.3062026-09-03: 0.3062026-09-04: 0.3062026-09-05: 0.3062026-09-06: 0.304 2026-08-26 2026-09-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 62.9%Cutter: 32.2%Curveball: 2.9%4-Seam Fastball: 2.0% SI63% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 63%FC 32%CU 3%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 63% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.0 mphSI98 mphCutter: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.9 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 63.2% 376 104 qualified
FC 33.1% 197 88 limited sample
CB 2.2% 13 105 limited sample
FB 1.5% 9 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Cutter 29%, Curveball 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.19
K% Δ+0.005
Sample53.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.7----
Batters Faced151----
K%25.3%19.7% to 34.8%+/- 7.6%
BB%9.5%5.8% to 13.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.6%20.0% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.200.52 to 2.02+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3090.240 to 0.366+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.431.79 to 6.36+/- 2.28
FIP3.502.57 to 5.23+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2740.972 to 1.614+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%25.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1199 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%24.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel8.3%