Alvarado, José
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.68 |
| ERA current pace | 5.79 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.34 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 63.7% | 239 | 104 | qualified |
| FC | 32.5% | 122 | 89 | limited sample |
| CB | 1.9% | 7 | 105 | limited sample |
| FB | 1.9% | 7 | 93 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +2.36 |
| K% Δ | +0.002 |
| Sample | 21.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 36.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 155 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.3% | 19.7% to 34.8% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 5.8% to 13.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 25.6% | 20.0% to 31.8% | +/- 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.20 | 0.52 to 2.02 | +/- 0.75 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.309 | 0.240 to 0.366 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 3.7% to 11.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 3.43 | 1.79 to 6.36 | +/- 2.28 |
| FIP | 3.50 | 2.57 to 5.23 | +/- 1.33 |
| WHIP | 1.275 | 0.972 to 1.614 | +/- 0.321 |
557 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 25.0% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
1199 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.297 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |