Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Díaz, Edwin

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
32.0% K%
Range
27.1% to 43.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal3 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason2.96
ERA current pace8.68
ERA rolling p504.80
Observed weight32%
ERA
3.32 4.02 4.80 5.59 6.29
FIP
2.42 2.81 3.26 3.70 4.10
K%
26.3% 29.1% 32.2% 35.3% 38.0%
BB%
6.7% 8.2% 9.9% 11.6% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.76
4
ERA8.68
1
BB%10.5%
30
K%28.9%
90
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.7%
45
Fastball velo96.7
83
Hard-hit allowed43.1%
19
Whiff%24.5%
64 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Díaz, Edwin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.312 2026-10-04: 0.3282026-10-05: 0.3202026-10-06: 0.3202026-10-07: 0.3212026-10-08: 0.3122026-10-09: 0.3122026-10-10: 0.3122026-10-11: 0.3122026-10-12: 0.3122026-10-13: 0.3122026-10-14: 0.3122026-10-15: 0.312 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Díaz, Edwin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Díaz, Edwin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.6%Slider: 43.6%Sinker: 0.9% FF56% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 56%SL 44%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Díaz, Edwin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mphSlider: 44% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mphSinker: 1% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.5% 177 103 limited sample
SL 44.5% 142 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 47%, Changeup 0%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+5.38
K% Δ-0.031
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.9----
Batters Faced166----
K%32.0%27.1% to 43.5%+/- 8.2%
BB%10.3%5.0% to 13.8%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%33.6%28.7% to 40.7%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.150.42 to 1.90+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2790.205 to 0.337+/- 0.066
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.9% to 10.1%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.341.18 to 5.15+/- 1.98
FIP3.001.69 to 3.93+/- 1.12
WHIP1.1270.744 to 1.472+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1017 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%34.5%
BB%10.8%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1196 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%31.1%
BB%7.4%
Barrel5.3%