Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Minter, A.j.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
18.9% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal4 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace2.56
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight44%
ERA
1.62 2.33 3.12 3.90 4.61
FIP
3.39 3.76 4.16 4.56 4.93
K%
19.7% 21.7% 24.0% 26.2% 28.2%
BB%
4.2% 5.3% 6.6% 7.8% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA2.56
90
BB%4.3%
99 +49 vs proj
K%21.9%
49 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.3%
12 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
33
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
63
Whiff%20.3%
29 -48 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Changeup Stuff+105
76
Cutter Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 55%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Minter, A.j. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-10-09: 0.3022026-10-10: 0.3022026-10-11: 0.3022026-10-12: 0.3022026-10-13: 0.3022026-10-14: 0.3022026-10-15: 0.3022026-10-16: 0.3022026-10-17: 0.3022026-10-18: 0.3022026-10-19: 0.3022026-10-20: 0.302 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Minter, A.j. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Minter, A.j. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 55.1%4-Seam Fastball: 27.6%Changeup: 12.9%Sinker: 4.4% FC55% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 55%FF 28%CH 13%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Minter, A.j. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Cutter: 55% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.5 mphCH86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 56.9% 186 102 limited sample
FB 26.6% 87 109 limited sample
CH 13.8% 45 105 limited sample
SI 2.8% 9 118 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 48%, 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.27
K% Δ-0.034
Sample45.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.5----
Batters Faced143----
K%25.4%18.9% to 32.7%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.9%5.1% to 13.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.2%20.4% to 34.6%+/- 7.1%
HR/91.290.68 to 2.21+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3140.239 to 0.364+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.4% to 12.3%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.891.26 to 5.45+/- 2.09
FIP3.812.58 to 4.73+/- 1.08
WHIP1.2290.948 to 1.489+/- 0.270
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

592 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%25.7%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1067 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%23.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.5%