Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Antone, Tejay

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
7.5% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace2.25
ERA rolling p503.34
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.10 2.16 3.34 4.52 5.58
FIP
2.08 2.99 4.00 5.00 5.91
K%
14.7% 17.4% 20.3% 23.3% 26.0%
BB%
4.5% 5.9% 7.4% 8.9% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.97
92
ERA2.25
91
BB%5.5%
92 +62 vs proj
K%22.0%
46
xwOBA allowed0.268
90 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo94.7
53
Hard-hit allowed34.9%
76
Whiff%23.9%
57 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+101
38
Cutter Stuff+100
39
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Antone, Tejay · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.268 2026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2812026-07-08: 0.2812026-07-09: 0.2812026-07-10: 0.2812026-07-11: 0.2752026-07-12: 0.2752026-07-13: 0.2682026-07-14: 0.2682026-07-15: 0.2682026-07-16: 0.2682026-07-17: 0.268 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Antone, Tejay · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Antone, Tejay · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 46.6%Cutter: 21.5%Curveball: 12.9%4-Seam Fastball: 8.9%Sinker: 7.4%Slider: 2.5% ST47% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 47%FC 22%CU 13%FF 9%SI 7%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Antone, Tejay · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 47% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSinker: 7% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphSlider: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.1 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.3% 113 106 limited sample
CB 17.3% 36 101 limited sample
FC 16.3% 34 100 limited sample
FB 6.7% 14 100 limited sample
SI 5.3% 11 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.74
K% Δ+0.016
Sample31.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.0----
Batters Faced133----
K%20.4%7.5% to 24.1%+/- 8.3%
BB%10.4%3.8% to 12.2%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.6%9.1% to 26.2%+/- 8.6%
HR/91.490.00 to 1.49+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3030.078 to 0.346+/- 0.134
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 10.2%+/- 5.0%
ERA4.990.00 to 6.06+/- 3.03
FIP4.791.45 to 6.62+/- 2.59
WHIP1.3820.482 to 1.849+/- 0.683
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.132
K%11.4%
BB%6.6%
Barrel1.2%
vs RHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.126
K%11.5%
BB%5.0%
Barrel1.2%