Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Castillo, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
18.3% to 29.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-04
ERA preseason3.99
ERA current pace5.31
ERA rolling p504.93
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.80 4.34 4.93 5.53 6.07
FIP
4.00 4.33 4.70 5.06 5.39
K%
17.6% 18.7% 19.8% 20.9% 21.9%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-04
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
25
ERA5.31
20
BB%6.9%
78
K%19.0%
28
xwOBA allowed0.339
25
Barrel allowed9.6%
19
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed43.1%
20
Whiff%21.7%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-04
Changeup Stuff+106
81
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Sinker Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+103
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Castillo, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-08-24: 0.3362026-08-25: 0.3392026-08-26: 0.3392026-08-27: 0.3392026-08-28: 0.3392026-08-29: 0.3392026-08-30: 0.3412026-08-31: 0.3412026-09-01: 0.3412026-09-02: 0.3412026-09-03: 0.3412026-09-04: 0.339 2026-08-24 2026-09-04 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Castillo, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.3%Slider: 24.6%Sinker: 19.1%Changeup: 14.7%Cutter: 0.2%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF41% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 25%SI 19%CH 15%FC 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphSL86 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.4% 596 102 qualified
SL 24.7% 347 103 qualified
SI 18.1% 254 107 qualified
CH 14.7% 207 106 qualified
FC 0.1% 1 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 22%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.24
K% Δ-0.017
Sample133.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings83.7----
Batters Faced348----
K%20.7%18.3% to 29.3%+/- 5.5%
BB%6.8%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.2%19.8% to 27.8%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.400.84 to 2.07+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3370.283 to 0.352+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.8% to 13.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.072.81 to 5.76+/- 1.48
FIP4.043.03 to 4.83+/- 0.90
WHIP1.3071.080 to 1.538+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3054 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%19.5%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

3052 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%23.3%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.9%