Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Domínguez, Seranthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.7% K%
Range
20.4% to 35.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace4.53
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.44 3.17 3.98 4.80 5.53
FIP
2.82 3.53 4.32 5.11 5.82
K%
22.6% 24.6% 26.9% 29.2% 31.2%
BB%
9.7% 11.0% 12.4% 13.8% 15.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
28
ERA4.53
37
BB%14.4%
5 -27 vs proj
K%27.0%
82
xwOBA allowed0.322
38 -42 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
29
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed37.9%
54
Whiff%25.5%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Curveball Stuff+98
5
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Slider Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Domínguez, Seranthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-08-20: 0.3252026-08-21: 0.3252026-08-22: 0.3252026-08-23: 0.3252026-08-24: 0.3252026-08-25: 0.3142026-08-26: 0.3142026-08-27: 0.3142026-08-28: 0.3142026-08-29: 0.3142026-08-30: 0.3222026-08-31: 0.322 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Domínguez, Seranthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.6%Sweeper: 27.7%Sinker: 16.4%Split-Finger: 11.6%Curveball: 1.6%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF43% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 43%ST 28%SI 16%FS 12%CU 2%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.1 mphST85 mphSinker: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.5 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.7 mphFS86 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.4 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.5% 241 101 qualified
SL 31.3% 162 95 limited sample
SI 20.1% 104 106 limited sample
CB 2.1% 11 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.266 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Sweeper 22%, Split-Finger 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.93
K% Δ+0.004
Sample49.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings46.0----
Batters Faced200----
K%26.7%20.4% to 35.3%+/- 7.4%
BB%10.5%6.8% to 15.3%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%27.0%22.8% to 33.8%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.100.46 to 2.15+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.2840.227 to 0.330+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.7% to 13.0%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.601.62 to 5.85+/- 2.11
FIP3.852.25 to 6.46+/- 2.10
WHIP1.2480.927 to 1.662+/- 0.368
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

614 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%23.0%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

873 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%27.9%
BB%10.9%
Barrel8.3%