Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Senzatela, Antonio

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.1% K%
Range
8.6% to 21.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.63
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p504.15
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.49 3.27 4.15 5.02 5.80
FIP
2.85 3.41 4.04 4.67 5.23
K%
14.2% 15.9% 17.7% 19.5% 21.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
55
ERA3.74
60
BB%8.1%
60
K%19.4%
31 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 +35 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
81 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
37
Whiff%20.3%
29
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Cutter Stuff+97
11
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Changeup Stuff+107
86
Curveball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Slider Stuff+92
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senzatela, Antonio · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-08-25: 0.3062026-08-26: 0.3062026-08-27: 0.3062026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3022026-08-31: 0.3022026-09-01: 0.3022026-09-02: 0.3012026-09-03: 0.3012026-09-04: 0.3012026-09-05: 0.301 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senzatela, Antonio · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.9%4-Seam Fastball: 32.8%Sinker: 18.6%Curveball: 8.4%Changeup: 5.0%Slider: 2.2% FC33% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 33%FF 33%SI 19%CU 8%CH 5%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSinker: 19% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.5 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mphSlider: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 34.3% 264 97 qualified
FB 29.5% 227 110 qualified
SI 19.5% 150 106 limited sample
CB 8.6% 66 102 limited sample
CH 5.6% 43 107 limited sample
SL 2.5% 19 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.360 vs 0.340 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 19%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.88
K% Δ+0.033
Sample67.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.2----
Batters Faced326----
K%16.1%8.6% to 21.9%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.4%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%18.9%14.3% to 23.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.520.62 to 2.27+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3310.287 to 0.398+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.622.47 to 7.16+/- 2.34
FIP4.473.56 to 6.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.4581.167 to 1.879+/- 0.356
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1873 career BF

xwOBA0.360
K%9.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

1875 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%12.1%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.0%