Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Senzatela, Antonio

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.1% K%
Range
8.6% to 21.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal7 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.99
ERA current pace3.31
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.41 3.26 4.21 5.16 6.01
FIP
2.77 3.34 3.97 4.59 5.16
K%
14.1% 15.9% 18.0% 20.1% 21.9%
BB%
5.8% 6.7% 7.6% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
71
ERA3.31
69
BB%7.7%
65
K%20.7%
37 +26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.291
70 +59 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +44 vs proj
Fastball velo97.0
87
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
43
Whiff%21.3%
37 +20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Changeup Stuff+107
83
Curveball Stuff+101
39
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senzatela, Antonio · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2872026-07-09: 0.2872026-07-10: 0.2932026-07-11: 0.2932026-07-12: 0.2922026-07-13: 0.2922026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2912026-07-17: 0.2912026-07-18: 0.291 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senzatela, Antonio · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.6%Cutter: 29.8%Sinker: 11.7%Curveball: 10.0%Changeup: 6.9%Slider: 3.0% FF39% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 39%FC 30%SI 12%CU 10%CH 7%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphCutter: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphSinker: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mphSlider: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.7% 209 109 qualified
FC 30.2% 172 101 limited sample
SI 12.0% 68 108 limited sample
CB 10.2% 58 101 limited sample
CH 7.6% 43 107 limited sample
SL 3.3% 19 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.360 vs 0.340 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 19%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.69
K% Δ+0.046
Sample51.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.2----
Batters Faced326----
K%16.1%8.6% to 21.9%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.4%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%18.9%14.3% to 23.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.570.63 to 2.34+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3580.310 to 0.430+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA5.002.67 to 7.74+/- 2.54
FIP4.473.56 to 6.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.5671.254 to 2.019+/- 0.383
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1873 career BF

xwOBA0.360
K%9.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

1875 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%12.1%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.0%