Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Sweeper 42%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Sewald, Paul
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.03 |
| ERA current pace | 3.80 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.96 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
ERA
2.13
3.00
3.96
4.93
5.79
FIP
3.21
3.59
4.02
4.44
4.82
K%
18.9%
21.9%
25.1%
28.4%
31.3%
BB%
5.1%
6.5%
8.0%
9.5%
10.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
71
+18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
43
Fastball velo91.3
11
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
71
K%26.8%
79
+20 vs proj
Whiff%22.9%
49
xwOBA allowed0.270
84
+19 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
2Pitches
2026Season
60%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 59.9% | 191 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 40.1% | 128 | 105 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.11 |
| K% Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 25.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 35.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 148 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.9% | 17.8% to 34.7% | +/- 8.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 5.1% to 12.7% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 22.7% | 17.6% to 31.0% | +/- 6.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 0.56 to 2.41 | +/- 0.93 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.297 | 0.236 to 0.358 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.1% | 5.1% to 15.5% | +/- 5.2% |
| ERA | 3.91 | 2.05 to 6.82 | +/- 2.38 |
| FIP | 3.83 | 2.24 to 4.33 | +/- 1.05 |
| WHIP | 1.211 | 0.937 to 1.564 | +/- 0.313 |
vs LHH
763 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 11.0% |
vs RHH
1023 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 11.3% |