Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Sewald, Paul

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
17.8% to 34.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal3 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA5.79
15
BB%6.4%
85
K%24.8%
69
xwOBA allowed0.324
37
Barrel allowed14.1%
1
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%23.0%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+108
88
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sewald, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.324 2026-08-21: 0.3222026-08-22: 0.3222026-08-23: 0.3222026-08-24: 0.3222026-08-25: 0.3192026-08-26: 0.3192026-08-27: 0.3212026-08-28: 0.3212026-08-29: 0.3212026-08-30: 0.3242026-08-31: 0.3242026-09-01: 0.324 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sewald, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.4%Sweeper: 41.4%Cutter: 1.1% FF57% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 57%ST 41%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.9 mphST83 mphCutter: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.5% 247 108 qualified
SL 42.3% 185 103 limited sample
FC 1.1% 5 82 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Sweeper 42%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample48.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.0----
Batters Faced152----
K%23.9%17.8% to 34.7%+/- 8.4%
BB%8.6%5.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.7%17.6% to 31.0%+/- 6.7%
HR/91.340.57 to 2.47+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.2970.237 to 0.359+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed9.1%5.1% to 15.5%+/- 5.2%
ERA3.912.05 to 6.83+/- 2.39
FIP3.832.24 to 4.33+/- 1.05
WHIP1.1970.927 to 1.546+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

763 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%24.4%
BB%8.6%
Barrel11.0%
vs RHH

1023 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%24.4%
BB%5.9%
Barrel11.3%