Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 38%, Sinker 37%, Cutter 13%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Brazobán, Huascar
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 37
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.99 |
| ERA current pace | 1.67 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.24 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
ERA
1.89
2.53
3.24
3.95
4.59
FIP
2.91
3.33
3.81
4.29
4.71
K%
17.5%
19.6%
21.9%
24.2%
26.3%
BB%
7.2%
8.4%
9.7%
11.1%
12.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
29
Barrel allowed1.3%
99
+36 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
76
Hard-hit allowed22.1%
99
K%20.9%
38
Whiff%25.9%
71
xwOBA allowed0.244
95
+41 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
49%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 49.4% | 194 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 42.7% | 168 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 4.6% | 18 | 102 | limited sample |
| FC | 1.8% | 7 | 92 | limited sample |
| SL | 1.5% | 6 | 89 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.19 |
| K% Δ | -0.014 |
| Sample | 28.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 283 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.2% | 16.7% to 28.9% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 7.0% to 13.7% | +/- 3.3% |
| Whiff% | 23.9% | 20.1% to 28.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.08 | 0.34 to 1.71 | +/- 0.68 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.261 to 0.342 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.9% | 4.5% to 9.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 3.86 | 2.44 to 6.03 | +/- 1.80 |
| FIP | 4.24 | 2.66 to 5.07 | +/- 1.21 |
| WHIP | 1.305 | 1.015 to 1.645 | +/- 0.315 |
vs LHH
376 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 12.9% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHH
555 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 21.6% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |