Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Hader, Josh

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.7% K%
Range
26.2% to 40.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
91
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal3 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace0.84
ERA rolling p502.45
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.09 1.73 2.45 3.17 3.81
FIP
0.78 1.77 2.88 3.99 4.98
K%
29.3% 31.7% 34.3% 37.0% 39.4%
BB%
5.9% 7.4% 9.2% 10.9% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.69
100
ERA0.84
99
BB%8.2%
58 +26 vs proj
K%35.8%
99
xwOBA allowed0.217
100
Barrel allowed8.0%
43 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
57
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
78
Whiff%33.6%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+96
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hader, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.217 2026-08-20: 0.2142026-08-21: 0.2142026-08-22: 0.2142026-08-23: 0.2142026-08-24: 0.2142026-08-25: 0.2222026-08-26: 0.2222026-08-27: 0.2172026-08-28: 0.2222026-08-29: 0.2222026-08-30: 0.2182026-08-31: 0.217 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hader, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 64%64%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hader, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 63.3%Slider: 36.7% SI63% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 63%SL 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hader, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 63% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlider: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.5 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 62.8% 108 103 limited sample
SL 37.2% 64 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 55%, Slider 41%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.68
K% Δ+0.041
Sample36.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings44.8----
Batters Faced180----
K%31.7%26.2% to 40.7%+/- 7.3%
BB%10.4%5.0% to 14.3%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%34.5%29.4% to 40.4%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.280.37 to 2.38+/- 1.01
xwOBA Against0.2720.179 to 0.335+/- 0.078
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.1% to 13.5%+/- 4.7%
ERA3.521.21 to 5.47+/- 2.13
FIP3.371.96 to 7.73+/- 2.88
WHIP1.1740.819 to 1.506+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

559 career BF

xwOBA0.224
K%31.5%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1625 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%32.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.8%