Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Anderson, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
6.1% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.18
ERA rolling p504.13
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.02 3.02 4.13 5.24 6.24
FIP
1.73 2.67 3.72 4.76 5.71
K%
20.3% 22.4% 24.8% 27.2% 29.3%
BB%
6.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA4.18
45
BB%9.4%
40
K%28.6%
87 +50 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.280
82
Barrel allowed7.9%
46
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
32
Whiff%27.7%
82 +57 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Curveball Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+110
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.280 2026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2832026-07-08: 0.2832026-07-09: 0.2852026-07-10: 0.2852026-07-11: 0.2852026-07-12: 0.2852026-07-13: 0.2802026-07-14: 0.2802026-07-15: 0.2802026-07-16: 0.2802026-07-17: 0.280 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.1%Changeup: 30.9%Curveball: 21.6%Slider: 6.1%Sinker: 1.4% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 31%CU 22%SL 6%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.7 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 80.3 mphCU80 mphSlider: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mphSinker: 1% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.7% 316 102 qualified
CH 31.5% 245 103 qualified
CB 21.5% 167 102 limited sample
SL 6.3% 49 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.18
K% Δ+0.080
Sample57.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.7----
Batters Faced139----
K%20.6%6.1% to 22.8%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.2%1.3% to 9.3%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%20.0%5.3% to 26.8%+/- 10.7%
HR/91.200.00 to 1.59+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.312+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.8%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.6%
ERA5.360.09 to 6.05+/- 2.98
FIP3.760.17 to 5.79+/- 2.81
WHIP1.4060.308 to 1.641+/- 0.666
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%7.9%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%8.5%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%