Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Anderson, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
6.0% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace4.09
ERA rolling p504.08
Observed weight61%
ERA
1.92 2.94 4.08 5.22 6.24
FIP
1.89 2.85 3.93 5.00 5.96
K%
20.2% 22.0% 23.9% 25.9% 27.6%
BB%
7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA4.09
49
BB%10.2%
35
K%25.9%
76 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%26.1%
76 +48 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+110
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-08-20: 0.2922026-08-21: 0.2922026-08-22: 0.2922026-08-23: 0.2922026-08-24: 0.2922026-08-25: 0.2942026-08-26: 0.2942026-08-27: 0.2942026-08-28: 0.2942026-08-29: 0.2942026-08-30: 0.2982026-08-31: 0.302 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.8%Changeup: 29.9%Curveball: 23.3%Slider: 5.3%Sinker: 1.6% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 30%CU 23%SL 5%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 80.2 mphCU80 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 2% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.0% 433 103 qualified
CH 30.4% 329 104 qualified
CB 22.6% 244 102 qualified
SL 6.2% 67 110 limited sample
SI 0.8% 9 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.30
K% Δ+0.053
Sample87.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.7----
Batters Faced165----
K%20.5%6.0% to 22.8%+/- 8.4%
BB%8.9%1.3% to 9.3%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%20.2%5.3% to 26.8%+/- 10.7%
HR/91.200.00 to 1.59+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.311+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.8%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.6%
ERA5.400.08 to 6.04+/- 2.98
FIP3.750.16 to 5.78+/- 2.81
WHIP1.3900.306 to 1.638+/- 0.666
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%7.9%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%8.5%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.1%