Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026
Anderson, Drew
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team DET
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.07 |
| ERA current pace | 3.44 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.81 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
ERA
1.67
2.68
3.81
4.93
5.94
FIP
1.63
2.59
3.64
4.70
5.66
K%
18.7%
21.1%
23.9%
26.6%
29.1%
BB%
6.3%
7.6%
9.0%
10.4%
11.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.5%
20
-23 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.8%
48
Fastball velo95.2
66
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
33
K%28.2%
84
+48 vs proj
Whiff%27.9%
82
+60 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
79
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.2% | 252 | 103 | qualified |
| CH | 31.7% | 199 | 104 | limited sample |
| CB | 21.4% | 134 | 101 | limited sample |
| SL | 6.7% | 42 | 110 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.92 |
| K% Δ | +0.076 |
| Sample | 40.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 141 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.6% | 6.1% to 22.8% | +/- 8.4% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 1.3% to 9.3% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 19.9% | 5.3% to 26.8% | +/- 10.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.20 | 0.00 to 1.59 | +/- 0.80 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.284 | 0.001 to 0.312 | +/- 0.155 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 0.1% to 9.4% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 5.36 | 0.09 to 6.05 | +/- 2.98 |
| FIP | 3.76 | 0.17 to 5.79 | +/- 2.81 |
| WHIP | 1.408 | 0.308 to 1.640 | +/- 0.666 |
vs LHH
105 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.004 |
| K% | 7.9% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
vs RHH
124 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.004 |
| K% | 8.5% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |