Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

López, Reynaldo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.5% K%
Range
21.6% to 35.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal5 metrics
19
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA3.64
63
BB%9.6%
43
K%21.2%
43
xwOBA allowed0.330
30
Barrel allowed8.1%
39
Fastball velo93.9
39
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
68
Whiff%20.0%
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+99
23
Slider Stuff+94
7
Changeup Stuff+91
4
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed López, Reynaldo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.330 2026-08-25: 0.3302026-08-26: 0.3302026-08-27: 0.3302026-08-28: 0.3302026-08-29: 0.3302026-08-30: 0.3302026-08-31: 0.3302026-09-01: 0.3302026-09-02: 0.3302026-09-03: 0.3302026-09-04: 0.3302026-09-05: 0.330 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile López, Reynaldo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 54.2%Slider: 30.4%Curveball: 11.5%Changeup: 4.0% FF54% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 54%SL 30%CU 11%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.7 mphSL84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 73.9 mphCU74 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.3 mphCH83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.8% 407 103 qualified
SL 32.0% 242 94 qualified
CB 10.8% 82 98 limited sample
CH 3.3% 25 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.298 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 36%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample79.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.6----
Batters Faced278----
K%26.5%21.6% to 35.2%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.1%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%24.8%20.4% to 32.2%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.370.47 to 1.71+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3200.260 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.001.09 to 4.30+/- 1.60
FIP3.442.30 to 5.16+/- 1.43
WHIP1.2300.953 to 1.440+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1806 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%25.4%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

1799 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%26.6%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.2%