Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Iglesias, Raisel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
19.1% to 35.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal5 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace2.82
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight48%
ERA
1.74 2.40 3.14 3.88 4.55
FIP
2.31 2.72 3.18 3.64 4.05
K%
21.9% 24.1% 26.5% 28.9% 31.1%
BB%
5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
75
ERA2.82
84
BB%7.2%
74
K%26.5%
80
xwOBA allowed0.291
74
Barrel allowed9.7%
18 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
64
Whiff%26.6%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+105
75
Fastball Stuff+103
54
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Iglesias, Raisel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.291 2026-08-25: 0.2872026-08-26: 0.2872026-08-27: 0.2912026-08-28: 0.2912026-08-29: 0.2912026-08-30: 0.2922026-08-31: 0.2952026-09-01: 0.2952026-09-02: 0.2952026-09-03: 0.2952026-09-04: 0.2952026-09-05: 0.291 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Iglesias, Raisel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 61%61%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Iglesias, Raisel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.5%Changeup: 35.8%Sinker: 19.1%Slider: 7.6% FF38% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 38%CH 36%SI 19%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Iglesias, Raisel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 36% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mphSinker: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSlider: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.6% 179 103 limited sample
CH 34.7% 149 105 limited sample
SI 17.2% 74 105 limited sample
SL 6.5% 28 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 28%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.63
K% Δ+0.010
Sample54.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.1----
Batters Faced161----
K%25.4%19.1% to 35.4%+/- 8.1%
BB%7.2%4.5% to 10.8%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%26.9%23.7% to 34.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.020.43 to 1.72+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.2960.236 to 0.331+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.5% to 10.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.431.24 to 5.21+/- 1.99
FIP3.442.42 to 4.87+/- 1.23
WHIP1.0910.809 to 1.459+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1474 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%25.6%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1601 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%26.7%
BB%5.3%
Barrel6.9%