Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Split-Finger 40%, Slider 4%.
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026
Finnegan, Kyle
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team DET
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.22 |
| ERA current pace | 1.75 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.39 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
ERA
1.76
2.53
3.39
4.24
5.01
FIP
3.37
3.82
4.33
4.84
5.29
K%
14.8%
17.0%
19.6%
22.1%
24.4%
BB%
8.0%
9.3%
10.7%
12.2%
13.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%15.6%
3
-53 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
73
+31 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
47
K%15.6%
10
-29 vs proj
Whiff%21.5%
38
xwOBA allowed0.326
41
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
47
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
56%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 84.5% | 246 | 102 | qualified |
| SL | 15.5% | 45 | 95 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.04 |
| K% Δ | -0.055 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 172 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.1% | 15.9% to 29.7% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.4% to 12.5% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 21.1% | 17.5% to 27.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.21 | 0.71 to 2.13 | +/- 0.71 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.317 | 0.253 to 0.375 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.2% to 12.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 3.79 | 2.31 to 6.68 | +/- 2.18 |
| FIP | 3.95 | 2.98 to 5.57 | +/- 1.29 |
| WHIP | 1.269 | 1.010 to 1.713 | +/- 0.352 |
vs LHH
717 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 9.0% |
vs RHH
849 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 8.8% |