Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Manaea, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
20.1% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal6 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace4.78
ERA rolling p504.59
Observed weight74%
ERA
3.51 4.02 4.59 5.16 5.67
FIP
3.50 3.79 4.12 4.45 4.74
K%
20.8% 21.7% 22.8% 23.8% 24.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
59
ERA4.78
31
BB%6.6%
84
K%22.2%
50
xwOBA allowed0.333
28
Barrel allowed11.0%
8 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
22
Whiff%20.7%
33 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+97
18
Changeup Stuff+98
26
Cutter Stuff+99
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Manaea, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.333 2026-10-04: 0.3332026-10-05: 0.3332026-10-06: 0.3332026-10-07: 0.3332026-10-08: 0.3332026-10-09: 0.3332026-10-10: 0.3332026-10-11: 0.3332026-10-12: 0.3332026-10-13: 0.3332026-10-14: 0.3332026-10-15: 0.333 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Manaea, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.6%Sweeper: 30.2%Sinker: 18.8%Cutter: 8.0%Changeup: 4.4% FF39% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 39%ST 30%SI 19%FC 8%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Manaea, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 75.7 mphST76 mphSinker: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCutter: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.7 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.0 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 642 101 qualified
SL 29.4% 495 97 qualified
SI 19.5% 329 105 qualified
FC 8.1% 136 99 limited sample
CH 4.9% 82 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Sweeper 34%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.62
K% Δ-0.013
Sample153.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.2----
Batters Faced308----
K%23.5%20.1% to 29.7%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.4%5.3% to 9.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.2%19.2% to 27.2%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.260.87 to 1.94+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3190.281 to 0.336+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.2% to 11.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.162.98 to 5.74+/- 1.38
FIP3.932.93 to 4.52+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2040.971 to 1.420+/- 0.225
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1315 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.6%
BB%5.7%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

4211 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%23.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.3%