Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Alexander, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.72
ERA current pace2.25
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.49 3.16 3.90 4.65 5.32
FIP
3.14 3.59 4.09 4.59 5.05
K%
16.6% 18.1% 19.7% 21.4% 22.9%
BB%
4.9% 5.8% 6.8% 7.8% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
55 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.4%
97 +58 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed30.6%
93
K%17.6%
17
Whiff%16.0%
6
xwOBA allowed0.281
79 +37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alexander, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2702026-05-21: 0.2732026-05-23: 0.2652026-05-24: 0.2662026-05-25: 0.2662026-05-26: 0.2662026-05-28: 0.2882026-05-29: 0.2872026-05-30: 0.2872026-05-31: 0.2872026-06-01: 0.2832026-06-02: 0.281 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alexander, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.3%Cutter: 25.9%Changeup: 25.4%Sweeper: 14.7%4-Seam Fastball: 7.6% MIX SI 26%FC 26%CH 25%ST 15%FF 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.4, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.1FCCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.1CHST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.4STFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.5FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 27.0% 112 105 limited sample
FC 26.3% 109 99 limited sample
CH 24.1% 100 99 limited sample
SL 14.9% 62 109 limited sample
FB 7.7% 32 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.328 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sweeper 22%, Cutter 18%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.63
K% Δ-0.010
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.2----
Batters Faced318----
K%18.6%16.8% to 25.1%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.3%4.2% to 8.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.8%16.4% to 24.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.581.08 to 2.32+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3240.283 to 0.366+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.883.09 to 6.88+/- 1.89
FIP4.413.05 to 5.61+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4071.103 to 1.682+/- 0.290
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

704 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%18.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%18.7%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.1%