Alexander, Tyler
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.72 |
| ERA current pace | 2.25 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.90 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 27.0% | 112 | 105 | limited sample |
| FC | 26.3% | 109 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 24.1% | 100 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 14.9% | 62 | 109 | limited sample |
| FB | 7.7% | 32 | 101 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.63 |
| K% Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 26.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 73.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 318 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.6% | 16.8% to 25.1% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.2% to 8.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 18.8% | 16.4% to 24.0% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.58 | 1.08 to 2.32 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.324 | 0.283 to 0.366 | +/- 0.041 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 6.0% to 11.3% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.88 | 3.09 to 6.88 | +/- 1.89 |
| FIP | 4.41 | 3.05 to 5.61 | +/- 1.28 |
| WHIP | 1.407 | 1.103 to 1.682 | +/- 0.290 |
704 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.296 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
1759 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.328 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |