Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Alexander, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.72
ERA current pace3.34
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.65 3.29 3.99 4.70 5.33
FIP
2.61 3.05 3.54 4.03 4.46
K%
17.8% 19.0% 20.4% 21.7% 22.9%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.8% 7.7% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
55
ERA3.34
72
BB%7.5%
69 -17 vs proj
K%20.0%
35
xwOBA allowed0.282
83 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
91 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
11
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
78
Whiff%20.6%
31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Cutter Stuff+98
20
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+103
62
Slider Stuff+108
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alexander, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.282 2026-08-25: 0.2822026-08-26: 0.2822026-08-27: 0.2842026-08-28: 0.2842026-08-29: 0.2842026-08-30: 0.2832026-08-31: 0.2842026-09-01: 0.2842026-09-02: 0.2842026-09-03: 0.2842026-09-04: 0.2842026-09-05: 0.282 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alexander, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 24.1%Cutter: 21.6%Sinker: 19.4%Sweeper: 18.0%4-Seam Fastball: 16.9% CH24% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 24%FC 22%SI 19%ST 18%FF 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 24% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.7 mphCH85 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mphSinker: 19% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 80.2 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 23.8% 151 98 limited sample
FC 23.8% 151 98 limited sample
SI 21.3% 135 103 limited sample
SL 19.1% 121 108 limited sample
FB 12.0% 76 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.328 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sweeper 22%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ+0.013
Sample61.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.0----
Batters Faced321----
K%18.7%16.8% to 25.1%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.3%4.2% to 8.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.8%16.4% to 24.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.581.08 to 2.32+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3240.283 to 0.366+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.883.09 to 6.88+/- 1.89
FIP4.413.05 to 5.61+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4071.103 to 1.682+/- 0.290
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

704 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%18.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%18.6%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.1%