Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Alexander, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.72
ERA current pace2.21
ERA rolling p503.66
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.30 2.94 3.66 4.37 5.01
FIP
2.79 3.22 3.70 4.19 4.62
K%
18.1% 19.5% 21.0% 22.6% 24.0%
BB%
4.9% 5.7% 6.6% 7.5% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
53
ERA2.21
93
BB%7.3%
71
K%21.5%
43 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +47 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
96 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
71
Whiff%20.4%
28
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Cutter Stuff+100
31
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+109
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alexander, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-06: 0.2712026-07-07: 0.2712026-07-08: 0.2712026-07-09: 0.2732026-07-10: 0.2732026-07-11: 0.2752026-07-12: 0.2762026-07-13: 0.2762026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.2742026-07-17: 0.274 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alexander, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 59%59%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 25.8%Cutter: 24.1%Sinker: 21.2%Sweeper: 15.8%4-Seam Fastball: 13.1% CH26% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 26%FC 24%SI 21%ST 16%FF 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alexander, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 26% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.5 mphCH85 mphCutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.0 mphFC88 mphSinker: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 79.7 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 26.3% 121 100 limited sample
SI 25.0% 115 105 limited sample
CH 24.1% 111 100 limited sample
SL 16.5% 76 109 limited sample
FB 8.0% 37 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.328 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sweeper 22%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.67
K% Δ+0.028
Sample41.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.8----
Batters Faced317----
K%18.6%16.8% to 25.1%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.3%4.2% to 8.8%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.8%16.4% to 24.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.581.08 to 2.32+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3240.283 to 0.366+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.0% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.883.09 to 6.88+/- 1.89
FIP4.413.05 to 5.62+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4071.103 to 1.682+/- 0.290
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

704 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%18.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%18.7%
BB%6.3%
Barrel8.1%