Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Kay, Anthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
8.2% to 21.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace3.96
ERA rolling p503.95
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.96 2.90 3.95 5.00 5.94
FIP
3.04 3.79 4.62 5.45 6.19
K%
15.3% 16.9% 18.7% 20.5% 22.1%
BB%
6.6% 7.6% 8.8% 10.0% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
39
Barrel allowed11.3%
13 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
69
Hard-hit allowed46.1%
12
K%17.1%
15 -21 vs proj
Whiff%18.6%
17 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.368
9 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kay, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3872026-05-19: 0.3872026-05-21: 0.3762026-05-23: 0.3762026-05-24: 0.3762026-05-25: 0.3762026-05-26: 0.3702026-05-28: 0.3702026-05-29: 0.3702026-05-30: 0.3702026-05-31: 0.3702026-06-01: 0.368 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kay, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.4%Sweeper: 19.8%Cutter: 18.9%Sinker: 18.2%Changeup: 14.3%Slider: 2.4% MIX FF 26%ST 20%FC 19%SI 18%CH 14%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFST: HB 0.2, IVB 3.4STFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.2FCSI: HB -0.1, IVB 2.1SICH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.1CHSL: HB 0.3, IVB 3.7SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.8% 261 104 qualified
SL 23.0% 224 93 qualified
SI 17.9% 174 104 limited sample
FC 17.7% 172 98 limited sample
CH 14.7% 143 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.00
K% Δ-0.036
Sample64.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.9----
Batters Faced148----
K%20.6%8.2% to 21.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%9.6%3.2% to 11.6%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.5%10.4% to 24.6%+/- 7.1%
HR/91.480.26 to 1.61+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3270.141 to 0.399+/- 0.129
Barrel% Allowed7.6%2.2% to 10.9%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.950.46 to 6.06+/- 2.80
FIP4.421.75 to 6.19+/- 2.22
WHIP1.2470.437 to 1.633+/- 0.598
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.129
K%9.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.141
K%8.8%
BB%5.1%
Barrel4.2%