Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Kay, Anthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
8.2% to 21.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p504.13
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.05 3.04 4.13 5.23 6.21
FIP
2.90 3.67 4.54 5.41 6.19
K%
16.4% 17.7% 19.2% 20.6% 21.9%
BB%
6.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.23
43
BB%9.1%
45
K%18.4%
22 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
14 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
22 -29 vs proj
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
30
Whiff%20.9%
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Cutter Stuff+98
15
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+100
37
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+96
15
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kay, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.352 2026-07-08: 0.3502026-07-09: 0.3502026-07-10: 0.3502026-07-11: 0.3502026-07-12: 0.3502026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3502026-07-15: 0.3502026-07-16: 0.3492026-07-17: 0.3492026-07-18: 0.3492026-07-19: 0.352 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kay, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 23.8%Sweeper: 21.7%Cutter: 17.8%Sinker: 17.7%Changeup: 14.2%Slider: 4.8% FF24% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 24%ST 22%FC 18%SI 18%CH 14%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kay, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphCutter: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.1% 303 103 qualified
SL 24.5% 285 96 qualified
SI 17.8% 207 104 qualified
FC 17.8% 207 98 qualified
CH 13.8% 160 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.27
K% Δ-0.023
Sample100.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced144----
K%20.6%8.2% to 21.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%9.7%3.2% to 11.6%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%21.4%10.4% to 24.6%+/- 7.1%
HR/91.480.26 to 1.61+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3270.141 to 0.399+/- 0.129
Barrel% Allowed7.6%2.2% to 10.9%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.960.46 to 6.06+/- 2.80
FIP4.421.75 to 6.19+/- 2.22
WHIP1.2500.437 to 1.633+/- 0.598
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

148 career BF

xwOBA0.129
K%9.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.141
K%8.8%
BB%5.1%
Barrel4.2%