Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Keller, Brad

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
18.5% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace3.80
ERA rolling p503.72
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.47 3.07 3.72 4.38 4.97
FIP
2.76 3.35 4.01 4.67 5.26
K%
20.0% 21.9% 24.0% 26.1% 28.0%
BB%
6.0% 7.3% 8.6% 10.0% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
39
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
Fastball velo96.9
87
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
78
K%26.2%
75 +21 vs proj
Whiff%22.0%
42
xwOBA allowed0.273
81 +49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.2742026-05-23: 0.2712026-05-24: 0.2632026-05-25: 0.2632026-05-26: 0.2622026-05-28: 0.2812026-05-29: 0.2812026-05-30: 0.2812026-05-31: 0.2812026-06-01: 0.273 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Slider: 20.6%Sinker: 18.3%Changeup: 14.4%Sweeper: 12.6% MIX FF 34%SL 21%SI 18%CH 14%ST 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 3.5SLSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.5SICH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.1CHST: HB -1.3, IVB 3.0ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.7% 128 106 limited sample
FB 33.7% 128 95 limited sample
SI 18.2% 69 100 limited sample
CH 14.5% 55 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 18%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.032
Sample25.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced281----
K%23.0%18.5% to 28.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.6%5.6% to 12.3%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.3%19.8% to 28.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.240.75 to 2.09+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3350.270 to 0.342+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 11.7%+/- 3.3%
ERA3.572.28 to 5.58+/- 1.65
FIP3.882.92 to 6.23+/- 1.65
WHIP1.2411.054 to 1.545+/- 0.245
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1752 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%20.3%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

1835 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.9%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.9%