Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Lauer, Eric

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal6 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight58%
ERA
3.07 3.72 4.45 5.18 5.83
FIP
4.61 5.00 5.42 5.84 6.22
K%
14.7% 16.0% 17.4% 18.8% 20.1%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.7% 8.6% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
54
ERA4.81
29
BB%8.3%
56
K%14.4%
5 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
24 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.9%
13 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
6
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
73
Whiff%15.1%
3 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Changeup Stuff+97
18
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Cutter Stuff+98
15
Slider Stuff+95
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lauer, Eric · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.341 2026-07-07: 0.3452026-07-08: 0.3412026-07-09: 0.3412026-07-10: 0.3412026-07-11: 0.3412026-07-12: 0.3412026-07-13: 0.3412026-07-14: 0.3412026-07-15: 0.3412026-07-16: 0.3412026-07-17: 0.3412026-07-18: 0.341 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lauer, Eric · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.5%Cutter: 19.1%Changeup: 16.4%Curveball: 12.5%Slider: 7.5% FF44% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 44%FC 19%CH 16%CU 13%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lauer, Eric · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 90.9 mphFF91 mphCutter: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.2 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 75.7 mphCU76 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.5 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.2% 404 99 qualified
FC 17.3% 151 98 limited sample
CH 16.8% 147 97 limited sample
CB 11.4% 100 104 limited sample
SL 8.3% 73 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.265 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Cutter 20%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.62
K% Δ-0.075
Sample75.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.5----
Batters Faced291----
K%21.9%16.6% to 27.3%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 10.4%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%19.3%14.5% to 23.8%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.591.07 to 2.47+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3200.273 to 0.348+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.9%6.4% to 12.5%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.191.89 to 5.76+/- 1.93
FIP4.283.25 to 5.50+/- 1.12
WHIP1.2601.031 to 1.572+/- 0.271
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

742 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%20.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

2432 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%19.6%
BB%6.9%
Barrel9.5%