Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Littell, Zack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 23.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.75 4.24 4.78 5.32 5.81
FIP
4.95 5.20 5.49 5.77 6.03
K%
13.7% 14.7% 15.9% 17.1% 18.2%
BB%
5.4% 6.1% 6.9% 7.7% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
51 -43 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.8%
16 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed45.3%
15
K%13.7%
4 -15 vs proj
Whiff%14.3%
2 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.379
6 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Littell, Zack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.4162026-05-21: 0.4162026-05-23: 0.4112026-05-24: 0.4132026-05-25: 0.4132026-05-26: 0.3922026-05-28: 0.3922026-05-29: 0.3922026-05-30: 0.3922026-05-31: 0.3922026-06-01: 0.3792026-06-02: 0.379 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Littell, Zack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 28.7%4-Seam Fastball: 27.7%Split-Finger: 20.2%Sinker: 13.9%Sweeper: 9.3%Pitch Out: 0.1% MIX SL 29%FF 28%FS 20%SI 14%ST 9%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1SLFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.4FFFS: HB -0.4, IVB 3.3FSSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.8SIST: HB -0.4, IVB 4.0STPO: HB 0.5, IVB 1.6PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.1% 343 97 qualified
FB 35.0% 255 97 qualified
SI 17.9% 130 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 28%, Split-Finger 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.09
K% Δ-0.041
Sample60.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.2----
Batters Faced603----
K%17.8%15.9% to 23.5%+/- 3.8%
BB%5.0%2.9% to 6.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%18.8%16.9% to 23.8%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.691.05 to 2.27+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3460.282 to 0.352+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.9%6.7% to 12.3%+/- 2.8%
ERA5.142.65 to 5.55+/- 1.45
FIP4.563.34 to 4.87+/- 0.76
WHIP1.3341.019 to 1.487+/- 0.234
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1239 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%17.6%
BB%4.4%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

1419 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%17.9%
BB%3.7%
Barrel9.5%