Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Mahle, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
14.6% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced starter Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
73
ERA3.99
52
BB%7.1%
77
K%22.5%
53
xwOBA allowed0.302
65
Barrel allowed6.8%
63
Fastball velo92.9
24
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
56
Whiff%21.5%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Cutter Stuff+103
63
Fastball Stuff+106
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Sinker Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+95
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mahle, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-10-09: 0.3022026-10-10: 0.3022026-10-11: 0.3022026-10-12: 0.3022026-10-13: 0.3022026-10-14: 0.3022026-10-15: 0.3022026-10-16: 0.3022026-10-17: 0.3022026-10-18: 0.3022026-10-19: 0.3022026-10-20: 0.302 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mahle, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.3%Split-Finger: 31.5%Cutter: 14.2%Slider: 6.4%Sinker: 0.6% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%FS 31%FC 14%SL 6%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mahle, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphFS86 mphCutter: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphSlider: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphSinker: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 68.8% 824 106 qualified
FC 19.1% 229 103 qualified
SL 10.6% 127 95 limited sample
SI 1.4% 17 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Split-Finger 28%, Cutter 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample164.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings133.8----
Batters Faced549----
K%17.7%14.6% to 23.3%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.7%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.8%16.4% to 24.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.350.56 to 1.84+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3420.278 to 0.356+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.4% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.071.76 to 5.08+/- 1.66
FIP4.482.99 to 5.21+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3300.972 to 1.491+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1581 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%17.2%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1714 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%16.0%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.7%