Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Speier, Gabe

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 36.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal4 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.33
ERA current pace2.57
ERA rolling p503.03
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.45 2.20 3.03 3.86 4.60
FIP
2.50 2.98 3.52 4.06 4.54
K%
20.1% 22.4% 25.0% 27.6% 30.0%
BB%
4.8% 6.0% 7.4% 8.8% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA2.57
89
BB%8.1%
59 -19 vs proj
K%20.6%
40 -47 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
54 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.3%
13 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%19.9%
25 -47 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Speier, Gabe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.310 2026-08-20: 0.3152026-08-21: 0.3152026-08-22: 0.3152026-08-23: 0.3152026-08-24: 0.3152026-08-25: 0.3102026-08-26: 0.3102026-08-27: 0.3072026-08-28: 0.3072026-08-29: 0.3072026-08-30: 0.3072026-08-31: 0.310 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Speier, Gabe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.0%Sinker: 32.1%Slider: 29.0%Sweeper: 0.5%Changeup: 0.3% FF38% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SI 32%SL 29%ST 1%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Speier, Gabe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSinker: 32% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 81.9 mphST82 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.2% 123 105 limited sample
SI 33.8% 115 105 limited sample
SL 29.7% 101 98 limited sample
CH 0.3% 1 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.238 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 29%, Slider 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.73
K% Δ-0.075
Sample37.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings43.3----
Batters Faced175----
K%28.2%21.3% to 36.8%+/- 7.8%
BB%6.9%3.3% to 11.3%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.5%19.7% to 31.0%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.160.42 to 1.89+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2890.238 to 0.336+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.7% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.301.42 to 5.79+/- 2.18
FIP3.142.04 to 4.87+/- 1.42
WHIP1.0830.819 to 1.467+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

375 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%30.0%
BB%4.8%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

457 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.2%
BB%6.1%
Barrel9.0%