Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Sulser, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.75 3.56 4.45 5.35 6.15
FIP
2.98 3.51 4.10 4.69 5.22
K%
19.7% 21.9% 24.3% 26.7% 28.9%
BB%
5.5% 6.8% 8.1% 9.5% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
26
ERA5.53
16
BB%7.0%
76 +40 vs proj
K%24.2%
62
xwOBA allowed0.339
26 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.4%
3 -72 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
27
Whiff%24.5%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+94
8
Fastball Stuff+112
97
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+106
86
Slider Stuff+73
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sulser, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.339 2026-07-06: 0.3472026-07-07: 0.3472026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3412026-07-11: 0.3412026-07-12: 0.3382026-07-13: 0.3382026-07-14: 0.3392026-07-15: 0.3392026-07-16: 0.3392026-07-17: 0.339 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sulser, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.7%Changeup: 39.9%Cutter: 12.0%Sweeper: 4.2%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF44% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 40%FC 12%ST 4%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.3 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.1 mphST83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 89.3 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.6% 230 112 qualified
CH 39.9% 201 94 qualified
FC 11.7% 59 106 limited sample
SL 2.8% 14 73 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.96
K% Δ-0.002
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.3----
Batters Faced128----
K%24.4%16.5% to 31.6%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.6%5.5% to 13.8%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%26.0%19.6% to 32.7%+/- 6.5%
HR/90.910.24 to 1.69+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2920.218 to 0.362+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.0%1.0% to 9.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.570.48 to 5.25+/- 2.39
FIP3.262.07 to 5.20+/- 1.57
WHIP1.2620.824 to 1.621+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%21.8%
BB%9.6%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

417 career BF

xwOBA0.230
K%22.0%
BB%7.8%
Barrel3.0%