Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Sulser, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal5 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
55
ERA4.31
42
BB%7.2%
74
K%23.6%
62
xwOBA allowed0.326
33
Barrel allowed11.7%
4
Fastball velo92.3
18
Hard-hit allowed41.5%
28
Whiff%25.6%
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+92
7
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Cutter Stuff+103
70
Slider Stuff+78
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sulser, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.326 2026-10-04: 0.3212026-10-05: 0.3212026-10-06: 0.3212026-10-07: 0.3212026-10-08: 0.3212026-10-09: 0.3212026-10-10: 0.3212026-10-11: 0.3212026-10-12: 0.3212026-10-13: 0.3262026-10-14: 0.3262026-10-15: 0.326 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sulser, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Changeup: 38.5%Cutter: 14.0%Sweeper: 3.6%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF44% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 38%FC 14%ST 4%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 38% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.6 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.1 mphST83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 89.3 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.7% 285 112 qualified
CH 38.2% 244 92 qualified
FC 14.3% 91 103 limited sample
SL 2.8% 18 78 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample58.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.9----
Batters Faced134----
K%24.4%16.5% to 31.6%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.6%5.5% to 13.8%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%26.0%19.6% to 32.7%+/- 6.5%
HR/90.910.24 to 1.69+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2930.218 to 0.362+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed6.0%1.0% to 9.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.570.48 to 5.25+/- 2.39
FIP3.262.07 to 5.20+/- 1.57
WHIP1.2610.824 to 1.621+/- 0.398
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%21.8%
BB%9.6%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

417 career BF

xwOBA0.230
K%22.0%
BB%7.8%
Barrel3.0%