Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Williams, Devin

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
32.1% K%
Range
26.1% to 41.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal3 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.83
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.49 3.31 4.23 5.14 5.96
FIP
1.54 2.34 3.23 4.11 4.91
K%
27.1% 29.5% 32.2% 34.9% 37.3%
BB%
8.2% 9.7% 11.3% 13.0% 14.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.70
6
ERA4.83
29
BB%13.0%
12
K%29.2%
90
xwOBA allowed0.290
72
Barrel allowed5.7%
79 +43 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed31.8%
91
Whiff%32.1%
96
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+114
99
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Devin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.290 2026-07-06: 0.2742026-07-07: 0.2732026-07-08: 0.2812026-07-09: 0.2812026-07-10: 0.2812026-07-11: 0.2782026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2782026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2902026-07-17: 0.290 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Devin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Devin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.2%Changeup: 48.3%Cutter: 1.0%Slider: 0.5% FF50% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CH 48%FC 1%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Devin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphCH84 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphSlider: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.1% 212 100 qualified
CH 49.2% 208 114 qualified
SL 0.5% 2 71 limited sample
FC 0.2% 1 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 52%, 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Cutter 0%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.53
K% Δ-0.029
Sample32.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.5----
Batters Faced155----
K%32.1%26.1% to 41.8%+/- 7.9%
BB%11.1%6.0% to 15.4%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%31.5%28.3% to 38.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.010.38 to 1.88+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.2890.206 to 0.364+/- 0.079
Barrel% Allowed8.6%4.0% to 13.1%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.301.49 to 6.28+/- 2.40
FIP3.301.32 to 5.97+/- 2.32
WHIP1.1140.836 to 1.541+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

632 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%30.2%
BB%11.7%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

664 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%35.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.0%