Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Yarbrough, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
13.5% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.91
ERA rolling p504.16
Observed weight51%
ERA
2.98 3.54 4.16 4.79 5.35
FIP
3.50 3.77 4.07 4.37 4.65
K%
14.0% 15.4% 17.0% 18.5% 19.9%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.4% 9.3% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
57
ERA3.91
55
BB%9.1%
48 -21 vs proj
K%16.3%
12
xwOBA allowed0.288
78 +33 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
97 +51 vs proj
Fastball velo87.2
1
Hard-hit allowed26.8%
99
Whiff%20.8%
34
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Changeup Stuff+111
98
Cutter Stuff+105
81
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+97
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Yarbrough, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.288 2026-08-25: 0.2782026-08-26: 0.2782026-08-27: 0.2782026-08-28: 0.2782026-08-29: 0.2782026-08-30: 0.2882026-08-31: 0.2882026-09-01: 0.2882026-09-02: 0.2882026-09-03: 0.2882026-09-04: 0.2882026-09-05: 0.288 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Yarbrough, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 28.1%Changeup: 21.5%Sweeper: 20.0%4-Seam Fastball: 17.1%Sinker: 13.3% FC28% · 85 mphprimary pitch FC 28%CH 22%ST 20%FF 17%SI 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.9 mphFC85 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 77.7 mphCH78 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 71.7 mphST72 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 87.4 mphFF87 mphSinker: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphSI87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 31.0% 166 105 limited sample
CH 21.3% 114 111 limited sample
SL 19.8% 106 97 limited sample
FB 17.0% 91 95 limited sample
SI 11.0% 59 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.321 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 26%, Changeup 20%, Sinker 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ-0.005
Sample57.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.0----
Batters Faced298----
K%16.7%13.5% to 23.8%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.6%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 25.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.441.00 to 2.39+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3160.282 to 0.363+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.5% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.432.90 to 6.25+/- 1.67
FIP4.753.71 to 5.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2871.034 to 1.547+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

982 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.3%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

2741 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%15.9%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%