Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Yarbrough, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
13.5% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.43
ERA current pace3.66
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.93 3.53 4.19 4.86 5.46
FIP
3.60 3.89 4.21 4.53 4.82
K%
13.0% 14.8% 16.8% 18.8% 20.6%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.8% 8.9% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
57
Barrel allowed1.2%
99 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo87.4
1
Hard-hit allowed24.7%
99
K%14.8%
7
Whiff%18.2%
14 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.256
90 +44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Yarbrough, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2392026-05-19: 0.2642026-05-21: 0.2642026-05-23: 0.2642026-05-24: 0.2642026-05-25: 0.2632026-05-26: 0.2632026-05-28: 0.2572026-05-29: 0.2562026-05-30: 0.2562026-05-31: 0.2562026-06-01: 0.256 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Yarbrough, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 29.1%Changeup: 19.8%4-Seam Fastball: 19.8%Sweeper: 19.3%Sinker: 12.1% MIX FC 29%CH 20%FF 20%ST 19%SI 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yarbrough, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.4FCCH: HB -1.4, IVB 3.7CHFF: HB 0.3, IVB 1.9FFST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.8STSI: HB 1.1, IVB 2.4SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 29.6% 93 105 limited sample
SL 20.7% 65 98 limited sample
FB 20.4% 64 92 limited sample
CH 18.8% 59 108 limited sample
SI 10.5% 33 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.321 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 26%, Changeup 20%, Sinker 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.77
K% Δ-0.019
Sample24.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.3----
Batters Faced295----
K%16.7%13.5% to 23.8%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.6%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 25.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.441.00 to 2.39+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3160.282 to 0.363+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.5% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.432.90 to 6.25+/- 1.67
FIP4.753.71 to 5.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2871.034 to 1.547+/- 0.257
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

982 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.3%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

2741 career BF

xwOBA0.321
K%15.9%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%