Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 58%, Changeup 19%, Curveball 16%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Loáisiga, Jonathan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team AZ
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.23 |
| ERA current pace | 2.66 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.06 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
ERA
1.30
2.14
3.06
3.98
4.82
FIP
2.89
3.42
4.02
4.61
5.14
K%
12.3%
15.1%
18.1%
21.2%
23.9%
BB%
2.9%
4.2%
5.6%
6.9%
8.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.0%
97
Barrel allowed6.5%
67
Fastball velo97.3
91
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
44
K%17.2%
15
-25 vs proj
Whiff%21.8%
40
xwOBA allowed0.299
64
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
30%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 31.8% | 103 | 112 | limited sample |
| CH | 27.5% | 89 | 101 | limited sample |
| FB | 21.3% | 69 | 102 | limited sample |
| CB | 19.4% | 63 | 107 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.12 |
| K% Δ | -0.038 |
| Sample | 24.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 31.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 143 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 12.0% to 27.9% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 2.9% to 10.0% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 22.8% | 17.4% to 28.1% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.41 to 2.45 | +/- 1.02 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.305 | 0.209 to 0.350 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.3% | 2.3% to 9.2% | +/- 3.4% |
| ERA | 3.78 | 1.44 to 6.03 | +/- 2.29 |
| FIP | 3.93 | 2.61 to 5.56 | +/- 1.47 |
| WHIP | 1.276 | 1.044 to 1.722 | +/- 0.339 |
vs LHH
494 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHH
716 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |