Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Peralta, Freddy

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
23.5% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
54
ERA4.42
39
BB%8.5%
53
K%21.3%
44
xwOBA allowed0.301
67
Barrel allowed6.0%
75
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
61
Whiff%23.1%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+106
80
Curveball Stuff+101
33
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Freddy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-10-04: 0.3022026-10-05: 0.3022026-10-06: 0.3012026-10-07: 0.3012026-10-08: 0.3012026-10-09: 0.3012026-10-10: 0.3012026-10-11: 0.3012026-10-12: 0.3012026-10-13: 0.3012026-10-14: 0.3012026-10-15: 0.301 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Freddy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.8%Changeup: 23.4%Curveball: 12.7%Sweeper: 5.4%Slider: 3.8%Slow Curve: 0.9% FF54% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 54%CH 23%CU 13%ST 5%SL 4%CS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.4 mphST82 mphSlider: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphSlow Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.7% 1014 103 qualified
CH 24.2% 457 106 qualified
CB 14.4% 272 101 qualified
SL 7.7% 145 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 21%, Curveball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample177.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings151.2----
Batters Faced630----
K%26.1%23.5% to 32.7%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.8%6.7% to 11.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.5%24.1% to 32.0%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.321.02 to 2.07+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3130.276 to 0.329+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.1% to 12.1%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.492.51 to 4.97+/- 1.23
FIP4.052.92 to 4.68+/- 0.88
WHIP1.2401.048 to 1.434+/- 0.193
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2103 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%24.9%
BB%10.1%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

2127 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%27.8%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.7%