Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Peralta, Freddy

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
23.5% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.52
ERA current pace5.33
ERA rolling p504.83
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.87 4.32 4.83 5.33 5.78
FIP
3.65 3.97 4.33 4.68 5.00
K%
21.1% 22.0% 23.0% 24.1% 25.0%
BB%
7.2% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA5.33
20
BB%8.7%
52
K%21.4%
45 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
57
Barrel allowed6.1%
71 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
45
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
52
Whiff%23.9%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+106
81
Curveball Stuff+100
26
Fastball Stuff+102
44
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Freddy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-08-20: 0.3122026-08-21: 0.3122026-08-22: 0.3122026-08-23: 0.3122026-08-24: 0.3122026-08-25: 0.3132026-08-26: 0.3132026-08-27: 0.3082026-08-28: 0.3082026-08-29: 0.3082026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.308 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Freddy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.5%Changeup: 22.8%Curveball: 13.2%Sweeper: 5.8%Slider: 4.7%Slow Curve: 1.0% FF52% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 52%CH 23%CU 13%ST 6%SL 5%CS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Freddy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 52% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphSlow Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.3% 823 102 qualified
CH 23.9% 369 106 qualified
CB 14.6% 225 100 qualified
SL 8.2% 126 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 21%, Curveball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.85
K% Δ-0.047
Sample139.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings153.0----
Batters Faced637----
K%26.1%23.5% to 32.6%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.8%6.7% to 11.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%25.4%24.1% to 32.0%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.321.02 to 2.07+/- 0.53
xwOBA Against0.3130.276 to 0.328+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.1% to 12.1%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.482.50 to 4.97+/- 1.23
FIP4.052.93 to 4.68+/- 0.88
WHIP1.2401.049 to 1.435+/- 0.193
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2103 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%24.9%
BB%10.1%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

2127 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%27.8%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.7%