Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Santana, Dennis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
17.5% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace4.94
ERA rolling p504.22
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.68 3.41 4.22 5.03 5.75
FIP
3.18 3.57 4.00 4.43 4.81
K%
17.5% 19.6% 22.0% 24.3% 26.5%
BB%
6.0% 7.3% 8.7% 10.1% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.0%
23 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.8%
27
Fastball velo93.9
44
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
67
K%17.8%
18 -36 vs proj
Whiff%22.2%
44 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
16 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santana, Dennis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3712026-05-19: 0.3742026-05-21: 0.3742026-05-23: 0.3672026-05-24: 0.3672026-05-25: 0.3672026-05-26: 0.3672026-05-28: 0.3592026-05-29: 0.3582026-05-30: 0.3582026-05-31: 0.3582026-06-01: 0.352 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santana, Dennis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 35.3%4-Seam Fastball: 34.9%Changeup: 15.3%Sinker: 9.8%Cutter: 4.7% MIX SL 35%FF 35%CH 15%SI 10%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santana, Dennis · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.8SLFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.6CHSI: HB 1.2, IVB 1.8SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 1.9FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.8% 147 96 limited sample
SL 34.8% 143 103 limited sample
CH 14.6% 60 104 limited sample
SI 10.0% 41 100 limited sample
FC 4.9% 20 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 11%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.90
K% Δ-0.052
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.0----
Batters Faced161----
K%23.0%17.5% to 30.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.0%4.7% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%25.2%21.1% to 30.9%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.030.55 to 1.78+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3130.246 to 0.350+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.041.31 to 5.42+/- 2.06
FIP3.742.77 to 4.99+/- 1.11
WHIP1.2400.820 to 1.506+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.6%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

801 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%21.7%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.6%