Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Jax, Griffin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
29.2% K%
Range
25.0% to 40.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal7 metrics
86
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.82
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.56 3.16 3.82 4.48 5.07
FIP
2.63 3.09 3.60 4.11 4.56
K%
24.0% 25.6% 27.4% 29.2% 30.9%
BB%
6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 8.4% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
60
ERA3.82
58
BB%8.0%
63
K%25.2%
72 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
33 -52 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
24
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
30
Whiff%28.3%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Slider Stuff+109
95
Changeup Stuff+109
97
Curveball Stuff+105
81
Cutter Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jax, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-08-25: 0.3232026-08-26: 0.3232026-08-27: 0.3232026-08-28: 0.3232026-08-29: 0.3232026-08-30: 0.3232026-08-31: 0.3232026-09-01: 0.3232026-09-02: 0.3232026-09-03: 0.3282026-09-04: 0.3282026-09-05: 0.328 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jax, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 25.2%Changeup: 23.1%Sinker: 21.3%4-Seam Fastball: 17.7%Curveball: 9.3%Cutter: 3.4% ST25% · 88 mphprimary pitch ST 25%CH 23%SI 21%FF 18%CU 9%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphST88 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.0 mphCH91 mphSinker: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 84.9 mphCU85 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.8 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 25.1% 231 109 qualified
CH 21.6% 199 109 limited sample
SI 20.5% 189 106 limited sample
FB 19.6% 181 108 limited sample
CB 8.8% 81 105 limited sample
FC 4.4% 41 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 43%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.39
K% Δ-0.040
Sample94.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.9----
Batters Faced286----
K%29.2%25.0% to 40.7%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.9%4.5% to 10.1%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%30.4%28.3% to 38.2%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.050.65 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2680.236 to 0.317+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.4% to 12.1%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.432.27 to 5.71+/- 1.72
FIP2.871.58 to 4.24+/- 1.33
WHIP1.1180.933 to 1.524+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

674 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%30.3%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%30.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel8.9%