Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Leiter Jr.., Mark

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
20.7% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.25
ERA current pace5.96
ERA rolling p504.83
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.98 3.86 4.83 5.80 6.67
FIP
2.29 2.84 3.46 4.07 4.62
K%
21.2% 23.5% 26.1% 28.7% 31.0%
BB%
5.8% 7.0% 8.4% 9.8% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.6%
79 +31 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
84 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
20
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
83
K%23.8%
58
Whiff%24.0%
59 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
30 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leiter Jr.., Mark · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3432026-05-19: 0.3432026-05-21: 0.3432026-05-23: 0.3392026-05-24: 0.3382026-05-25: 0.3412026-05-26: 0.3412026-05-28: 0.3412026-05-29: 0.3412026-05-30: 0.3412026-05-31: 0.3382026-06-01: 0.337 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leiter Jr.., Mark · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter Jr.., Mark · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 30.5%Sinker: 27.2%Curveball: 17.7%4-Seam Fastball: 15.3%Cutter: 8.2%Slider: 1.1% MIX FS 31%SI 27%CU 18%FF 15%FC 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter Jr.., Mark · 2026 arsenal snapshot FS: HB -0.2, IVB 3.0FSSI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.7SICU: HB 0.2, IVB 5.6CUFF: HB 0.1, IVB 1.3FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.0FCSL: HB -0.2, IVB 3.5SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.1% 99 106 limited sample
CB 25.4% 66 103 limited sample
FB 22.3% 58 91 limited sample
FC 12.3% 32 99 limited sample
SL 1.9% 5 113 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 38%, Split-Finger 31%, Curveball 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.82
K% Δ-0.014
Sample27.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.2----
Batters Faced173----
K%25.2%20.7% to 34.6%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.8%5.6% to 13.0%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%28.0%24.5% to 36.3%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.170.44 to 1.94+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.252 to 0.360+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.4% to 11.4%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.142.30 to 7.26+/- 2.48
FIP3.642.08 to 5.22+/- 1.57
WHIP1.3061.005 to 1.782+/- 0.389
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

893 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%28.1%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

751 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%23.9%
BB%7.5%
Barrel7.8%