Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Alcantara, Sandy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.1% K%
Range
15.9% to 25.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced starter Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal6 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.75
ERA current pace4.00
ERA rolling p504.22
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.95 3.55 4.22 4.89 5.49
FIP
2.92 3.33 3.79 4.24 4.65
K%
17.4% 18.3% 19.4% 20.4% 21.4%
BB%
5.2% 5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
63
ERA4.00
50
BB%5.8%
89 +18 vs proj
K%19.1%
27
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +46 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
73
Whiff%19.4%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+110
95
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Sinker Stuff+110
97
Slider Stuff+102
52
Cutter Stuff+102
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alcantara, Sandy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3012026-07-13: 0.3012026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.3012026-07-17: 0.3012026-07-18: 0.301 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alcantara, Sandy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.2%Changeup: 20.9%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Cutter: 14.2%Sweeper: 9.3%Slider: 7.8% SI25% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 25%CH 21%FF 19%FC 14%ST 9%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alcantara, Sandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.2 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.9 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.1% 350 102 qualified
SI 23.3% 312 110 qualified
CH 22.5% 301 110 qualified
FB 20.1% 269 106 qualified
FC 7.4% 99 102 limited sample
CB 0.7% 9 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 26%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.91
K% Δ+0.010
Sample136.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.2----
Batters Faced612----
K%18.1%15.9% to 25.2%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.4%5.6% to 10.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.8%17.4% to 25.3%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.270.81 to 2.04+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3390.300 to 0.368+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.1% to 11.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.913.67 to 6.99+/- 1.66
FIP4.203.29 to 5.55+/- 1.13
WHIP1.2901.076 to 1.567+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2398 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%16.0%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

2206 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.3%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.2%