Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 48%, Sinker 1%.
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026
Abreu, Bryan
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.20 |
| ERA current pace | 6.88 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.34 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
ERA
2.79
3.52
4.34
5.16
5.90
FIP
2.78
3.47
4.24
5.00
5.69
K%
24.8%
27.4%
30.4%
33.4%
36.1%
BB%
11.2%
12.9%
14.8%
16.7%
18.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%25.9%
0
-31 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
25
-17 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
61
Hard-hit allowed46.0%
12
K%25.0%
69
-25 vs proj
Whiff%28.7%
85
xwOBA allowed0.379
6
-75 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+94
11
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
51%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 51.1% | 178 | 98 | limited sample |
| FB | 48.9% | 170 | 91 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +3.66 |
| K% Δ | -0.060 |
| Sample | 21.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 42.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 180 | -- | -- |
| K% | 31.0% | 24.7% to 40.4% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 5.3% to 14.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| Whiff% | 33.3% | 30.1% to 41.6% | +/- 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.06 | 0.55 to 1.90 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.273 | 0.225 to 0.364 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 4.7% to 13.1% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 3.22 | 0.91 to 5.03 | +/- 2.06 |
| FIP | 2.99 | 1.89 to 5.73 | +/- 1.92 |
| WHIP | 1.170 | 0.901 to 1.606 | +/- 0.353 |
vs LHH
741 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 31.1% |
| BB% | 11.2% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |
vs RHH
803 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 31.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |