Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Changeup 21%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
King, Michael
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team SD
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.42 |
| ERA current pace | 2.76 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.06 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
2.15
2.58
3.06
3.53
3.97
FIP
3.49
3.75
4.03
4.30
4.56
K%
21.3%
22.6%
24.1%
25.6%
26.9%
BB%
7.5%
8.2%
9.1%
9.9%
10.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
30
-32 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
20
-23 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
68
K%22.7%
54
Whiff%24.2%
60
xwOBA allowed0.315
48
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
28%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 27.1% | 274 | 102 | qualified |
| SI | 26.6% | 269 | 104 | qualified |
| SL | 25.8% | 261 | 99 | qualified |
| FB | 20.6% | 208 | 99 | qualified |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.84 |
| K% Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 70.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 72.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 305 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.9% | 21.0% to 31.1% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.8% to 10.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 24.7% | 21.8% to 29.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 0.89 to 1.99 | +/- 0.55 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.271 to 0.338 | +/- 0.034 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 6.2% to 11.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.61 | 2.32 to 4.88 | +/- 1.28 |
| FIP | 3.80 | 2.81 to 4.31 | +/- 0.75 |
| WHIP | 1.233 | 1.017 to 1.428 | +/- 0.206 |
vs LHH
1066 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 23.7% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |
vs RHH
1221 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 25.5% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |