Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Beeks, Jalen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.9% K%
Range
15.3% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight32%
ERA
2.74 3.32 3.97 4.61 5.19
FIP
3.89 4.22 4.58 4.94 5.26
K%
15.5% 17.3% 19.3% 21.2% 23.0%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.9% 9.0% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed8.2%
43
Fastball velo93.3
32
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
32
K%16.8%
14
Whiff%20.1%
25 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
15 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Beeks, Jalen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3062026-05-19: 0.3062026-05-21: 0.3012026-05-23: 0.3012026-05-24: 0.3012026-05-25: 0.3012026-05-26: 0.3012026-05-28: 0.3342026-05-29: 0.3482026-05-30: 0.3482026-05-31: 0.3462026-06-01: 0.352 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Beeks, Jalen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Beeks, Jalen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.2%Changeup: 37.8%Cutter: 10.9% MIX FF 51%CH 38%FC 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Beeks, Jalen · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFCH: HB -0.4, IVB 2.2CHFC: HB -0.0, IVB 3.4FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.8% 183 104 limited sample
CH 38.2% 135 97 limited sample
FC 9.9% 35 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.268 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Changeup 38%, Cutter 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.34
K% Δ-0.021
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.8----
Batters Faced284----
K%18.9%15.3% to 25.6%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.8%6.3% to 12.0%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%23.4%20.4% to 28.2%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.190.69 to 1.97+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3150.261 to 0.339+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.082.96 to 6.22+/- 1.63
FIP4.273.28 to 5.10+/- 0.91
WHIP1.2911.011 to 1.600+/- 0.295
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

571 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%20.8%
BB%7.7%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

1268 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%16.6%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.3%