Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Bird, Jake

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
15.2% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA5.35
20
BB%7.7%
67
K%25.8%
76
xwOBA allowed0.318
43
Barrel allowed8.6%
32
Fastball velo94.3
47
Hard-hit allowed36.2%
67
Whiff%26.3%
77
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+102
38
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+111
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bird, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-08-25: 0.3202026-08-26: 0.3202026-08-27: 0.3182026-08-28: 0.3182026-08-29: 0.3182026-08-30: 0.3182026-08-31: 0.3182026-09-01: 0.3182026-09-02: 0.3182026-09-03: 0.3182026-09-04: 0.3182026-09-05: 0.318 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bird, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 38.5%Sinker: 32.2%4-Seam Fastball: 16.8%Curveball: 11.7%Changeup: 0.8% ST38% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 38%SI 32%FF 17%CU 12%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bird, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 38% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphSinker: 32% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 40.2% 154 111 limited sample
SI 29.2% 112 101 limited sample
FB 18.0% 69 100 limited sample
CB 12.0% 46 102 limited sample
CH 0.5% 2 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 35%, Curveball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample41.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.2----
Batters Faced179----
K%22.7%15.2% to 30.1%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.8%6.2% to 14.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%24.9%19.1% to 30.7%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.310.23 to 2.04+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.2900.248 to 0.367+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed8.0%3.9% to 13.0%+/- 4.5%
ERA4.382.19 to 7.10+/- 2.46
FIP4.112.65 to 4.14+/- 0.74
WHIP1.2910.997 to 1.835+/- 0.419
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

498 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%19.1%
BB%10.2%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

612 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%19.4%
BB%8.8%
Barrel7.5%