Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Blewett, Scott

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
15.3% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal5 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-18
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.05 2.64 3.30 3.96 4.55
FIP
3.03 3.40 3.82 4.24 4.62
K%
16.5% 18.3% 20.2% 22.2% 24.0%
BB%
6.1% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA2.22
93
BB%8.5%
54
K%19.9%
35
xwOBA allowed0.299
66 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.0%
86 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
63
Whiff%22.6%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-18
Cutter Stuff+97
14
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+100
24
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blewett, Scott · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-09-04: 0.2792026-09-05: 0.2792026-09-06: 0.2792026-09-07: 0.2752026-09-08: 0.2752026-09-09: 0.2752026-09-10: 0.2732026-09-11: 0.2732026-09-12: 0.2882026-09-13: 0.2882026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.299 2026-09-04 2026-09-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blewett, Scott · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 11%11%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blewett, Scott · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 32.2%4-Seam Fastball: 25.5%Slider: 24.4%Sinker: 10.4%Split-Finger: 7.5% FC32% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 32%FF 26%SL 24%SI 10%FS 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blewett, Scott · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mphSinker: 10% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.7 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 39.9% 108 97 limited sample
FB 25.8% 70 102 limited sample
SL 24.7% 67 97 limited sample
SI 9.6% 26 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 44%, 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Split-Finger 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.44
K% Δ-0.009
Sample33.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.1----
Batters Faced276----
K%20.7%15.3% to 26.0%+/- 5.4%
BB%8.8%6.1% to 11.7%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.6%21.3% to 30.1%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.480.85 to 2.34+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.274 to 0.350+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.6%4.7% to 12.4%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.662.91 to 6.32+/- 1.71
FIP4.563.18 to 5.35+/- 1.09
WHIP1.3721.086 to 1.757+/- 0.335
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

164 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%17.1%
BB%9.1%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

185 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%17.4%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.1%