Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Burke, Brock

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
17.9% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal5 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.52 3.02 3.58 4.13 4.63
FIP
3.87 4.15 4.46 4.77 5.04
K%
18.1% 19.7% 21.3% 23.0% 24.5%
BB%
8.6% 9.6% 10.7% 11.8% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.61
9
ERA3.02
76
BB%14.4%
6 -60 vs proj
K%19.5%
30 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
36 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
28 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
85
Whiff%24.6%
62
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+106
74
Sinker Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burke, Brock · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.3282026-07-17: 0.3282026-07-18: 0.328 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burke, Brock · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Brock · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.6%Slider: 30.3%Changeup: 16.8%Sinker: 13.3% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%SL 30%CH 17%SI 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Brock · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSinker: 13% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.7% 229 104 qualified
SL 30.0% 169 101 limited sample
CH 17.6% 99 106 limited sample
SI 11.7% 66 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 27%, Changeup 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.87
K% Δ-0.029
Sample46.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced283----
K%22.5%17.9% to 28.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.6%5.5% to 10.9%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%22.9%19.9% to 27.2%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.361.16 to 2.43+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3030.275 to 0.343+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.7% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.892.86 to 5.84+/- 1.49
FIP3.963.24 to 4.89+/- 0.83
WHIP1.2941.089 to 1.632+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

382 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%20.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

797 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%19.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.2%