Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 27%, Changeup 22%.
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026
Burke, Brock
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CIN
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.07 |
| ERA current pace | 3.60 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.90 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
ERA
2.81
3.32
3.90
4.47
4.99
FIP
3.84
4.13
4.44
4.76
5.05
K%
18.6%
20.3%
22.3%
24.2%
25.9%
BB%
7.6%
8.7%
9.9%
11.0%
12.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%14.1%
7
-60 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.7%
18
-28 vs proj
Fastball velo95.5
70
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
78
K%21.1%
40
Whiff%25.5%
68
+20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.340
25
-35 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
41%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.9% | 176 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 28.8% | 124 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 18.6% | 80 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 11.6% | 50 | 86 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.29 |
| K% Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 30.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 280 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.5% | 17.9% to 28.3% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.5% to 10.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Whiff% | 22.9% | 19.9% to 27.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.36 | 1.16 to 2.43 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.275 to 0.343 | +/- 0.034 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 5.7% to 10.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 3.89 | 2.86 to 5.84 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 3.96 | 3.24 to 4.89 | +/- 0.83 |
| WHIP | 1.294 | 1.089 to 1.632 | +/- 0.272 |
vs LHH
382 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHH
797 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |