Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Canning, Griffin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace7.54
ERA rolling p505.26
Observed weight33%
ERA
4.11 4.66 5.26 5.87 6.41
FIP
4.02 4.41 4.84 5.27 5.66
K%
17.9% 19.8% 21.8% 23.8% 25.6%
BB%
7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 10.8% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
12 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.5%
12 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
48
Hard-hit allowed48.7%
5
K%22.5%
52
Whiff%23.2%
51
xwOBA allowed0.347
21 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

6 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Canning, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-26: 0.3372026-05-28: 0.3372026-05-29: 0.3362026-05-30: 0.3362026-05-31: 0.3362026-06-01: 0.347 2026-05-26 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Canning, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 27.7%4-Seam Fastball: 26.4%Slider: 24.2%Sinker: 11.8%Cutter: 4.1%Sweeper: 4.1% MIX CH 28%FF 26%SL 24%SI 12%FC 4%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Canning, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot CH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.8CHFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.3SLSI: HB 0.7, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.3FCST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.1STKC: HB 0.4, IVB 3.9KC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.3% 132 99 limited sample
CH 27.7% 129 102 limited sample
FB 26.4% 123 95 limited sample
SI 11.8% 55 94 limited sample
FC 4.1% 19 104 limited sample
CB 1.7% 8 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 31%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.59
K% Δ+0.017
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.3----
Batters Faced609----
K%20.8%16.2% to 26.6%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.4% to 10.9%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.4%20.3% to 27.7%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.400.88 to 2.16+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3180.284 to 0.346+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.952.89 to 5.97+/- 1.54
FIP4.413.22 to 5.41+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3071.104 to 1.593+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1325 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%19.0%
BB%9.8%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1353 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%19.9%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.1%