Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Cease, Dylan

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
28.0% K%
Range
24.3% to 34.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
84
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
89
ERA2.37
91
BB%10.7%
29
K%35.6%
98
xwOBA allowed0.254
95
Barrel allowed4.9%
87
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
89
Whiff%31.3%
95
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+109
93
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+104
72
Changeup Stuff+97
16
Curveball Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cease, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.254 2026-08-21: 0.2542026-08-22: 0.2542026-08-23: 0.2542026-08-24: 0.2542026-08-25: 0.2552026-08-26: 0.2552026-08-27: 0.2552026-08-28: 0.2552026-08-29: 0.2552026-08-30: 0.2542026-08-31: 0.2542026-09-01: 0.254 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cease, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.3%Slider: 29.6%Changeup: 11.9%Knuckle Curve: 9.8%Sinker: 8.3%Sweeper: 4.1% FF36% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SL 30%CH 12%KC 10%SI 8%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cease, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSlider: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.9 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 82.0 mphCH82 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 81.9 mphKC82 mphSinker: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 83.5 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.4% 582 109 qualified
SL 34.5% 552 104 qualified
CH 10.9% 174 97 limited sample
CB 9.4% 150 103 limited sample
SI 8.8% 141 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 41%, Knuckle Curve 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample153.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings150.6----
Batters Faced642----
K%28.0%24.3% to 34.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%9.1%6.8% to 11.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%29.5%26.9% to 35.0%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.200.62 to 1.82+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3060.264 to 0.330+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 11.2%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.762.71 to 5.82+/- 1.55
FIP3.482.57 to 5.08+/- 1.26
WHIP1.2511.034 to 1.518+/- 0.242
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2265 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.6%
BB%9.8%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

2298 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%28.4%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.9%