Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Flaherty, Jack

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
21.2% to 31.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.01
ERA current pace5.94
ERA rolling p505.07
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.88 4.44 5.07 5.69 6.25
FIP
3.65 3.99 4.36 4.74 5.08
K%
22.6% 24.1% 25.6% 27.2% 28.6%
BB%
8.0% 8.8% 9.7% 10.5% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.0%
23 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
25
Fastball velo92.3
21
Hard-hit allowed46.9%
9
K%25.2%
70
Whiff%23.3%
52
xwOBA allowed0.339
27 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+96
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Flaherty, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3572026-05-19: 0.3522026-05-21: 0.3522026-05-23: 0.3522026-05-24: 0.3522026-05-25: 0.3512026-05-26: 0.3512026-05-28: 0.3512026-05-29: 0.3512026-05-30: 0.3392026-05-31: 0.3392026-06-01: 0.339 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Flaherty, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flaherty, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.4%Slider: 25.5%Knuckle Curve: 19.0%Sinker: 4.1%Changeup: 3.1% MIX FF 48%SL 25%KC 19%SI 4%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Flaherty, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.3FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.9SLKC: HB 0.0, IVB 4.5KCSI: HB -0.2, IVB 2.0SICH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.5CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.3% 470 98 qualified
SL 24.7% 236 100 qualified
CB 19.9% 190 98 limited sample
SI 4.1% 39 87 limited sample
CH 2.0% 19 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 46%, Knuckle Curve 25%, Slider 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.01
K% Δ+0.001
Sample62.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.8----
Batters Faced331----
K%25.1%21.2% to 31.8%+/- 5.3%
BB%8.2%5.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%24.9%22.1% to 29.8%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.330.92 to 2.09+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3220.277 to 0.357+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.932.62 to 5.96+/- 1.67
FIP3.872.91 to 4.91+/- 1.00
WHIP1.2681.085 to 1.562+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2355 career BF

xwOBA0.315
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
Barrel8.9%
vs RHH

2207 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%26.3%
BB%6.5%
Barrel10.2%