Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Slider 43%, Sinker 7%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Ginkel, Kevin
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.77 |
| ERA current pace | 3.18 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.59 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
ERA
2.07
2.79
3.59
4.39
5.10
FIP
1.74
2.42
3.17
3.91
4.59
K%
21.1%
23.8%
26.8%
29.8%
32.5%
BB%
5.0%
6.2%
7.6%
9.0%
10.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.6%
90
+40 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
37
Fastball velo94.6
56
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
43
K%29.0%
87
+20 vs proj
Whiff%27.9%
82
+18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.244
95
+34 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 52.3% | 197 | 101 | limited sample |
| FB | 44.3% | 167 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 3.4% | 13 | 108 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.64 |
| K% Δ | +0.041 |
| Sample | 25.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 160 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.9% | 18.1% to 33.8% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 4.9% to 12.2% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 24.9% | 20.1% to 32.6% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.06 | 0.31 to 1.66 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.236 to 0.361 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 3.5% to 11.8% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 3.82 | 2.42 to 6.41 | +/- 2.00 |
| FIP | 3.32 | 2.04 to 5.77 | +/- 1.86 |
| WHIP | 1.259 | 1.005 to 1.645 | +/- 0.320 |
vs LHH
500 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 25.1% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
vs RHH
706 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 23.2% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |