Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Keller, Mitch

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
18.2% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
40
ERA5.29
21
BB%8.6%
53
K%18.6%
25
xwOBA allowed0.355
12
Barrel allowed7.6%
47
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
24
Whiff%18.9%
18
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Slider Stuff+104
71
Changeup Stuff+109
95
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Cutter Stuff+103
70
Sinker Stuff+97
17
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.355 2026-10-04: 0.3552026-10-05: 0.3552026-10-06: 0.3552026-10-07: 0.3552026-10-08: 0.3552026-10-09: 0.3552026-10-10: 0.3552026-10-11: 0.3552026-10-12: 0.3552026-10-13: 0.3552026-10-14: 0.3552026-10-15: 0.355 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.2%Sinker: 17.9%Sweeper: 16.3%Changeup: 9.0%Curveball: 8.9%Slider: 8.7% FF32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 18%ST 16%CH 9%CU 9%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSinker: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphSlider: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.3% 417 105 qualified
SL 25.8% 314 104 qualified
SI 15.6% 189 97 limited sample
CH 10.7% 130 109 limited sample
CB 7.3% 89 96 limited sample
FC 6.3% 76 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.328 vs 0.291 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Sweeper 19%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample122.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings150.4----
Batters Faced645----
K%20.7%18.2% to 26.4%+/- 4.1%
BB%6.7%5.0% to 9.0%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%18.1%16.8% to 23.1%+/- 3.1%
HR/91.310.92 to 1.95+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3350.297 to 0.348+/- 0.026
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.3% to 10.8%+/- 2.2%
ERA4.133.57 to 5.80+/- 1.11
FIP3.973.30 to 4.56+/- 0.63
WHIP1.2681.119 to 1.504+/- 0.193
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2002 career BF

xwOBA0.328
K%20.2%
BB%7.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1966 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%20.5%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.2%