Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Latz, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace1.63
ERA rolling p502.58
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.42 1.97 2.58 3.19 3.74
FIP
2.48 2.95 3.48 4.00 4.47
K%
23.0% 24.5% 26.2% 27.9% 29.4%
BB%
7.3% 8.2% 9.3% 10.3% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.90
98
ERA1.63
98
BB%8.9%
50 +17 vs proj
K%30.0%
93 +47 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.235
98 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo94.6
52
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%28.0%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Curveball Stuff+100
15
Slider Stuff+107
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Latz, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.235 2026-08-25: 0.2402026-08-26: 0.2402026-08-27: 0.2402026-08-28: 0.2402026-08-29: 0.2402026-08-30: 0.2402026-08-31: 0.2372026-09-01: 0.2372026-09-02: 0.2352026-09-03: 0.2352026-09-04: 0.2352026-09-05: 0.235 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Latz, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 54.4%Changeup: 18.9%Slider: 18.6%Curveball: 8.1% FF54% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 54%CH 19%SL 19%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mphSlider: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.3 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.1% 373 106 qualified
SL 21.4% 150 107 limited sample
CH 18.2% 128 100 limited sample
CB 7.3% 51 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 23%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.36
K% Δ+0.084
Sample63.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced279----
K%21.6%17.4% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.4%7.9% to 14.1%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.0% to 31.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.080.48 to 1.82+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.346+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.981.75 to 5.04+/- 1.64
FIP4.022.80 to 5.62+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3231.018 to 1.562+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

215 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.7%
BB%10.5%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

389 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.8%
BB%11.4%
Barrel7.0%