Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Latz, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
17.4% to 28.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace2.16
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.87 2.45 3.09 3.74 4.32
FIP
2.92 3.42 3.97 4.53 5.02
K%
19.4% 21.3% 23.4% 25.4% 27.3%
BB%
6.6% 7.7% 9.0% 10.2% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
66 +37 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
23 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed46.8%
10
K%25.4%
71 +26 vs proj
Whiff%27.2%
79
xwOBA allowed0.255
92 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Latz, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2542026-05-19: 0.2542026-05-21: 0.2542026-05-23: 0.2382026-05-24: 0.2382026-05-25: 0.2382026-05-26: 0.2382026-05-28: 0.2612026-05-29: 0.2612026-05-30: 0.2612026-05-31: 0.2612026-06-01: 0.255 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Latz, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 52.9%Slider: 23.7%Changeup: 16.0%Curveball: 7.5% MIX FF 53%SL 24%CH 16%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Latz, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.9SLCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.3CHCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.6CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.2% 218 105 qualified
SL 23.6% 95 108 limited sample
CH 15.2% 61 99 limited sample
CB 7.0% 28 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Changeup 23%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.82
K% Δ+0.038
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.9----
Batters Faced276----
K%21.6%17.4% to 28.0%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.4%7.9% to 14.1%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.0% to 31.0%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.080.48 to 1.82+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3040.261 to 0.346+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed7.1%4.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.981.75 to 5.04+/- 1.64
FIP4.022.80 to 5.62+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3231.018 to 1.562+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

215 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%20.7%
BB%10.5%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

389 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%19.8%
BB%11.4%
Barrel7.0%