Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Megill, Trevor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.7% K%
Range
21.0% to 35.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal3 metrics
98
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.07
ERA current pace2.63
ERA rolling p502.83
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.68 2.23 2.83 3.44 3.99
FIP
1.48 1.97 2.51 3.05 3.54
K%
24.1% 25.9% 27.9% 29.9% 31.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.82
99
ERA2.63
90
BB%6.2%
87 +39 vs proj
K%29.3%
91
xwOBA allowed0.252
97 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
59 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
94
Hard-hit allowed42.8%
20
Whiff%28.5%
89 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Curveball Stuff+106
96
Fastball Stuff+113
99
Mithrandir Stuff+112
100
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Megill, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.252 2026-10-04: 0.2522026-10-05: 0.2522026-10-06: 0.2522026-10-07: 0.2522026-10-08: 0.2502026-10-09: 0.2502026-10-10: 0.2502026-10-11: 0.2502026-10-12: 0.2542026-10-13: 0.2542026-10-14: 0.2542026-10-15: 0.252 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Megill, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 64.6%Knuckle Curve: 35.4% FF65% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 65%KC 35% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 65% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.0 mphKC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.7% 374 113 qualified
CB 36.3% 213 106 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Knuckle Curve 39%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.64
K% Δ+0.026
Sample70.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.7----
Batters Faced265----
K%26.7%21.0% to 35.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.1%5.6% to 11.2%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%25.5%21.4% to 31.6%+/- 5.1%
HR/90.980.47 to 1.70+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.2860.245 to 0.336+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.3% to 12.7%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.271.60 to 4.86+/- 1.63
FIP3.152.17 to 5.09+/- 1.46
WHIP1.1910.973 to 1.436+/- 0.232
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

433 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%26.6%
BB%9.0%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

490 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%26.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.2%