Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Megill, Trevor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.7% K%
Range
21.0% to 35.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.07
ERA current pace4.74
ERA rolling p503.55
Observed weight29%
ERA
2.29 2.89 3.55 4.21 4.80
FIP
1.59 2.12 2.71 3.30 3.84
K%
22.9% 25.4% 28.2% 31.0% 33.5%
BB%
5.4% 6.5% 7.6% 8.8% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.2%
84 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.2%
81 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
18
K%33.0%
95 +17 vs proj
Whiff%32.6%
95 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.263
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Megill, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.2882026-05-23: 0.2882026-05-24: 0.2882026-05-25: 0.2882026-05-26: 0.2882026-05-28: 0.2822026-05-29: 0.2822026-05-30: 0.2822026-05-31: 0.2712026-06-01: 0.263 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Megill, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 60.3%Knuckle Curve: 39.7% MIX FF 60%KC 40% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.0, IVB 0.8FFKC: HB -0.0, IVB 3.2KC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 60.0% 195 111 limited sample
CB 40.0% 130 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 61%, Knuckle Curve 39%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.47
K% Δ+0.063
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.1----
Batters Faced263----
K%26.7%21.0% to 35.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.1%5.6% to 11.2%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%25.5%21.4% to 31.6%+/- 5.1%
HR/90.980.47 to 1.70+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.2860.245 to 0.336+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.3% to 12.7%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.271.60 to 4.86+/- 1.63
FIP3.152.17 to 5.09+/- 1.46
WHIP1.1910.973 to 1.436+/- 0.232
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

433 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%26.6%
BB%9.0%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

490 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%26.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.2%