Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Newcomb, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.6% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace2.52
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.14 2.70 3.33 3.95 4.52
FIP
2.71 3.06 3.46 3.85 4.21
K%
19.7% 21.1% 22.7% 24.3% 25.7%
BB%
6.2% 7.2% 8.2% 9.3% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
75
ERA2.52
88
BB%8.6%
50
K%23.3%
56
xwOBA allowed0.298
66 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.2%
84 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
62
Whiff%21.7%
40 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Curveball Stuff+97
3
Cutter Stuff+91
2
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Newcomb, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.298 2026-07-07: 0.2952026-07-08: 0.2952026-07-09: 0.2952026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.2952026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.2992026-07-14: 0.2992026-07-15: 0.2982026-07-16: 0.2982026-07-17: 0.2982026-07-18: 0.298 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Newcomb, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.1%Slurve: 33.4%Sinker: 24.1%Changeup: 3.0%Curveball: 2.4%Cutter: 2.0% FF35% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SV 33%SI 24%CH 3%CU 2%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.6 mphSV83 mphSinker: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.8 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.7% 177 107 limited sample
FB 30.0% 158 107 limited sample
SI 27.4% 144 105 limited sample
CH 4.6% 24 98 limited sample
CB 2.3% 12 97 limited sample
FC 2.1% 11 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 22%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.47
K% Δ+0.009
Sample55.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced284----
K%22.4%17.6% to 27.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 11.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%18.7%15.0% to 24.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.320.39 to 2.18+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3220.276 to 0.347+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.2% to 10.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.24 to 5.60+/- 1.68
FIP3.892.72 to 4.84+/- 1.06
WHIP1.2781.072 to 1.645+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

687 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%21.1%
BB%7.9%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1754 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%19.8%
BB%8.1%
Barrel6.2%