Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Newcomb, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.6% to 27.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace2.84
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.40 2.98 3.62 4.26 4.83
FIP
2.90 3.27 3.67 4.07 4.44
K%
18.6% 20.2% 21.9% 23.7% 25.2%
BB%
5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.8% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
72
Barrel allowed5.7%
75 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed37.1%
64
K%21.6%
45
Whiff%20.4%
27
xwOBA allowed0.290
71 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Newcomb, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2832026-05-19: 0.2922026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.3032026-05-24: 0.3032026-05-25: 0.3032026-05-26: 0.3032026-05-28: 0.2952026-05-29: 0.2942026-05-30: 0.2942026-05-31: 0.2902026-06-01: 0.290 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Newcomb, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 33.6%4-Seam Fastball: 28.7%Sinker: 28.2%Changeup: 4.3%Curveball: 2.6%Cutter: 2.6% MIX SV 34%FF 29%SI 28%CH 4%CU 3%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Newcomb, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot SV: HB 0.5, IVB 3.8SVFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.3FFSI: HB 0.2, IVB 2.3SICH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.9CHCU: HB 1.1, IVB 4.9CUFC: HB -0.2, IVB 1.9FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 33.7% 163 106 limited sample
FB 28.3% 137 107 limited sample
SI 28.3% 137 106 limited sample
CH 5.0% 24 98 limited sample
CB 2.5% 12 96 limited sample
FC 2.3% 11 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.283 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Sinker 22%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.15
K% Δ-0.008
Sample36.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.0----
Batters Faced280----
K%22.4%17.6% to 27.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 11.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%18.7%15.0% to 24.1%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.320.39 to 2.18+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3220.276 to 0.347+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.2% to 10.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.24 to 5.60+/- 1.68
FIP3.892.72 to 4.84+/- 1.06
WHIP1.2781.072 to 1.645+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

687 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%21.1%
BB%7.9%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1754 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%19.8%
BB%8.1%
Barrel6.2%